Publications come after the US session close - that's late evening Moscow time. The main move happens in after-hours trading (trades after the official exchange close), and the indices price it in during the next session.
What the numbers say to expect from each:
Tesla - deliveries have already beaten the forecast (486,532 vehicles), but the question is margin: EPS forecast of $0.21 versus $0.37 a year earlier.
Meta - the key benchmark is whether the company will expand its stated range of investment in equipment and data centers for 2026 at $130-145 billion.
Netflix - its own revenue forecast of $12.86 billion and about $3 billion from ad sales in 2026.
SpaceX - Elon Musk's goal to reach annual revenue above $100 billion in December. In the second quarter the company spent $18.4 billion, of which $15.8 billion on artificial intelligence, with a net loss of $541 million. CFO Bret Johnsen said the AI division became profitable on an adjusted basis with revenue of $1.1 billion. According to media reports, SpaceX wants a $40 billion loan to buy Nvidia chips.
Right now it's forecasts, not results, that move the stock. In July Netflix beat profit expectations by just 1 cent, but weak guidance crashed the stock by 9% in after-hours trading. Meta lost more than 7% after its report: profit below expectations, quarterly capex of $31.1 billion, and free cash left at $784 million. This quarter Meta will take a one-time charge of about $10 billion for legal costs under a settlement that could reach $18 billion.
Last week strong bank reports didn't help their stocks - Jim Cramer pointed this out. Now the same test is being taken by the companies pouring money into AI.
Scenario A: forecasts confirm the payback on spending - gaps go one way, volatility is short-lived.
Scenario B: forecasts disappoint - individual stocks move after the close, and the indices follow in the morning.
Were you in a position when the report came out?
The main reaction comes after the close: the price gaps, and your position is already open. In prop programs this is a gray area - some list earnings among prohibited events, some cut overnight holds, some simply don't offer indices and individual stocks among their instruments. You need to check this before Tuesday, not at the moment of the gap. Our selection shows which programs allow this kind of trading.