EUR/GBP continues to decline and has updated a 16-month low. The pair dropped to 0.8442, the lowest level since June 2025. In less than three weeks, the euro has lost about 1.92% against the pound.
Why the move is notable
EUR/GBP is one of the cross rates that usually move more calmly than many dollar pairs. Therefore, a decline of almost 2% over several weeks looks significant. The current move shows a noticeable divergence in the market's attitude toward the euro and the pound.
Where the nearest levels are
The nearest resistance is around 0.8500. This is the area of last week's high. Below current values, the first support is 0.8405. The next zone is located around 0.8370-0.8355.
What is pressuring the euro
One of the key factors remains the situation with France's public finances. The high level of debt and budget deficit increases investors' concerns about the stability of the debt market. Additional attention was drawn by calls for tighter fiscal policy and deficit reduction. For the euro, this creates a negative backdrop, especially if risks begin to spread to the entire eurozone bond market.
Why the pound looks stronger
The UK, by contrast, is emphasizing fiscal discipline. New government initiatives promise to be financed through taxes or reallocation of spending, rather than through additional debt increases. For the market, this reduces concerns about the debt burden and supports the pound relative to the euro.
How expensive oil affects things
An additional factor remains Brent above $104 per barrel. For the eurozone, expensive energy means higher costs and additional inflationary pressure. At the same time, economic growth may remain weak. This combination increases the risk of stagflation and creates additional pressure on the euro.
What's next
On Thursday, the UK monthly GDP and industrial production data will be released. Strong data could further support the pound and increase pressure on EUR/GBP. Weak data, on the contrary, could give the euro a reason for a technical rebound after three weeks of decline.
Caught these 150 pips on EUR/GBP?
For a cross rate, a move of almost two figures over several weeks is rare. For a prop trader, not only the trend itself matters, but also the available trading nominal. In prop trading, the company provides a trading account after passing a paid evaluation, and profit is distributed according to pre-established conditions. It is better to understand the mechanics while the move is still ongoing.