Bitcoin stalled below the 50-day average at $81,831. The price failed to hold above $81,687 and dipped to $80,297 on the Bitstamp exchange. Down about 0.3% over the day.
The 50-day simple moving average is the average closing price over the last 50 days. Traders watch it as a trend benchmark and as a level from which the price often bounces.
Why this matters to a trader. Buyers did not break through this level on the eve of the Fed decision and tech company earnings. The market has settled into a narrow corridor and is waiting for news.
What levels are holding the price?
The average is pressing from above. The $81,831 mark acts as local resistance.
- $81,831 - the 50-day average, above which the price is not yet being allowed
- $80,565 - a 4-hour candle closing below this price reduces the chances of another approach to the average, according to trader Keith Alan
Why is the order book so thin?
There are almost no orders. According to the analytics platform Glassnode, only $3.4 million in buy orders remain at the $80,000 level.
- $3.4 million - demand at the $80,000 mark
- about $42 million - orders in the $78,000-79,000 zone versus roughly $24 million in mid-October
The first real demand. It is in this zone that Glassnode expects buyers to appear on a dip.
Why is the market standing still?
- The Fed meeting. It takes place on Wednesday, October 28, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
- The rate is expected to stay unchanged. The range is 3.75-4%, and the CME FedWatch indicator gives 90.6% for a pause.
- December. The same indicator prices in a 0.25% hike for then.
- The elections. Alan reminds us: the market has already priced in no move on the rate, but not the US midterm elections on November 3.
Dates at hand. The meeting and the rest of the week's events are in the economic calendar.
What is happening in stocks?
Asia shot up. The Korean KOSPI index closed at +6.6%, its best day since July.
- almost 10% - the Nasdaq Composite's rebound over two days
- 34% - how far the index is still below its record of 9,115 from June 22, versus minus 40% on Monday
Nasdaq did not follow KOSPI. The US index rebounded but remained far from its high.
What next?
A corridor until the meeting's outcome. Crypto is squeezed between thin orders at $80,000 and the average at $81,831.
- Warsh's press conference - the first trigger
- tech earnings this week - the market will use them to judge the state of the artificial intelligence sector
The main thing: the next move will be set not by the rate itself, but by Warsh's words and tech company earnings. The market has already priced in the pause.
Crypto and loss limit conditions differ between programs; you can compare them in the prop firm catalog.
Were you waiting for a break of the average and didn't get it?
Ahead of the Fed decision the market is squeezed, and not everyone knows how to hold a position. The order book is thin, and a loss on the account appears out of nowhere. With your own money it's only your risk, but on a funded account the program also decides whether you can hold crypto at the moment of the statement. Some calculate the daily loss limit from the balance, others from the account high, and in this market those are two very different stories. It's better to check these numbers now, before Warsh steps up to the microphone.