US consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month in October. The market expected 0.23% to 0.3%. The report was released at 16:30 Moscow time.
Consumer prices are the cost of an ordinary basket of expenses: food, fuel, housing, services. From this figure, the market guesses what the Fed will do with the rate.
The reaction came immediately. Exchanges forcibly closed roughly $200 million in long positions in crypto, and Bitcoin and gold moved lower.
What did the report show?
Fuel rose the most in price. Here is how the monthly price growth broke down:
- +1.0% month-over-month - gasoline, and +37.4% year-over-year
- +0.7% - energy overall
- +0.5% - food
- +0.3% - housing, the heaviest part of the index; in September it was 0.4%
- 0.3% - core inflation, the third month in a row at this level
Core inflation is calculated without food and fuel: their prices jump around and blur the picture.
How did the markets get through these five minutes?
Bitcoin swung within a range. The figures from the first minutes after the release:
- $74,770 and $73,525 - the boundaries of the move on Binance
- around $73,709 (-0.9%) - the close of that five-minute candle
- $73,918 - the price by 16:36 Moscow time
- -0.6% to $4048 per ounce - gold, with a dip to $4040
- -1.9% - ETH
Long positions were on the chopping block. These are leveraged bets on price increases. When the loss eats through the margin, the exchange closes the trade itself. In five minutes, such liquidations added up to $200 million.
Why does inflation pressure gold and crypto?
- Prices are rising. The Fed raises the rate to bring them down.
- A high rate favors the dollar and US government bonds. They pay interest, and they pull money toward them.
- Gold and Bitcoin pay no interest. That is why they lose out at such a moment and move lower.
December is already priced in. Before the data release, the market estimated the chances of a rate hike in December at 84%. Fed Board member Chris Waller said a move of a full 50 basis points could also be appropriate. The rate currently stands at 3.75-4%.
What's next?
There are no annual figures in the report. During last year's US government shutdown, October 2025 prices simply were not collected, so there is nothing to compare with. The entire weight fell on the monthly data.
Not a single bank in the pre-release survey got it right:
- 0.19% - Morgan Stanley forecast
- 0.28% - Wells Fargo forecast
- $1.28 billion - outflow from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds amid rising rate expectations
Exchange-traded funds are funds through which an asset is bought like a stock.
Key point: the next figures like these and the Fed meeting are in the economic calendar, and you can pick a challenge for news trading in advance.
Were you in a position at 16:30?
The five minutes around a release are the working day of a trader who trades statistics. The only thing is that prop firms disagree on how to view such a trade. One considers it normal, another requires everything to be closed in advance, a third cuts the allowed volume and counts the daily loss from the account maximum. It is easier to read such clauses on a calm market than a minute before the next figure. The calculator will immediately filter out programs where your style counts as a violation.