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Mary Daly, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (one of the 12 regional Fed banks), said on Friday, November 13: the US economy is fine, but the key problem is inflation, and there is a "shift toward the view that rates need to rise." The dollar on this climbed to its highest since April 2025, gold lost more than 4% over the week.
On the evening of November 13 at 21:15 Moscow time, a report emerged that the Bank of Japan is conducting interventions in the yen. These are direct operations by the regulator in the foreign exchange market, where the central bank itself buys the national currency to stop its weakening.
Japanese Metaplanet (the world's second-largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin) reported a loss of 27.16 billion yen - about $170 million - for the nine months of 2026. A year earlier, for the same period, there was a profit of 13.53 billion yen ($84.6 million).
Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on Friday, November 13, on Ethereum CNBC that if data worsen, the Fed will act more aggressively on rates. The dollar thereby moved to a 19-month peak, gold lost more than 4% over the week.
The pair reached 159.95 - right up against the round 160 mark and the highest since September 2. Japanese Finance Ministry currency official Atsushi Mimura said markets should not forget about intervention risks, and the rate pulled back from that zone.
Japanese producer output prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in October instead of the expected 6.5%. This increases pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise the rate on December 17-18 - the third time in a calendar year, something that has not happened since 1989.
The Office for National Statistics (UK's national statistics service) publishes its preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP. Consensus is growth of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter versus 0.5% in the second quarter, with an annual rate of 1.9% versus 1.4%. GBP/USD approaches the release around 1.3275 - the lowest since mid-October.
DXY (dollar index, the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies) reached 103.048 during the Asian session on Thursday - for the first time since early April 2025. In the previous session it gained 0.7% after US inflation came in above forecast.
The yen weakens for the second day in a row after October US inflation data. The market has almost fully priced in a Fed rate hike in December, and less than a figure remains to the 160 level, near which Tokyo has already entered the market with interventions.
October inflation in the US came in above forecast, and the government bond market responded with a sell-off. The DXY dollar index stands at 102.22 - a high since October 28, and the market considers a Fed rate hike on December 9 almost a done deal: 91.9% according to CME FedWatch versus 84% the day before.
Clare Lombardelli, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, told the Guardian that she does not rule out a rate hike at the December meeting. For a market accustomed to expecting cuts from the British central bank, this is a reversal in tone.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks today, November 6, at 19:00 MSK. Japan's rate is currently 1.25% - the highest since April 1995, and Ueda is expected to hint whether the next move will come on December 18.
On Thursday, November 5, the Japanese yen became the strongest currency of the day: money fled from US tech stocks into it, and the Bank of Japan's minutes added to expectations of a December rate hike.
At 03:00 Moscow time on November 5, the Bank of Japan published the minutes of the September meeting: board members agreed that the rate should continue to be raised. The yen is strengthening for the second day in a row, USD/JPY slid to 158.25, EUR/JPY to 177.90.
The DXY dollar index fell to 101.40 (-0.44% for the day) after the Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Yet the yen failed to capitalize on this: USD/JPY holds near 158.32, having lost just 0.24%.
Micron (MU, the largest American memory manufacturer) shares closed Monday at $833.59 - down $51.15 from the previous price of $884.74. Memory and chips lost more than $400 billion in market capitalization in a single session.
On the morning of November 2, the head of the Bank of Japan once again signaled readiness to raise the key rate. No specific dates or figures were announced, but for the market this is not the first such hint in recent months.
On Friday, October 30, at 20:45 Moscow time, Dallas Fed President Lori Logan said that bringing inflation back under control will require at least two more quarter-percentage-point rate hikes. Gold, amid expectations of tightening, hit a new low for the year.
From November 2 to 6, the market will get four reasons to move at once: the US midterm congressional elections, decisions from four central banks and the US employment report on Friday. The dollar enters this week after two weeks of decline and, for the first time in a long while, at its 200-week moving average.
The Bank of Japan kept its short-term rate at 1.25% with an 8-1 vote and noticeably tightened its language: core inflation hit the 2% target for the first time since 2013. The yen is strengthening, USD/JPY falls for the third day in a row.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ, the country's central bank) will announce its rate decision on Friday, October 30. Almost no one expects a change - the rate is expected to stay at 1.25%. All the interest lies elsewhere: what the regulator will say about December, where the market sees a hike with a probability of about 80%.
On the evening of October 28, the Fed left the rate at 3.75-4%, although US inflation is still above the 2% target. The decision was not unanimous: two votes went for a 0.25 percentage point hike - a rare picture that immediately pushed currencies in different directions.
The pair recovered from a drop to a monthly low around 156.00 and returned almost to 158.00 in a V-shaped move - the third consecutive rising session. The dollar is being pulled up ahead of the Fed decision, which will be released today at 21:00 Moscow time.
XAU/USD is fluctuating around $4,000 on Tuesday and has already dipped below it, despite easing US rate expectations. Trading is taking place near $4,012, slightly above last week's three-month low of $3,975.
