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On November 6, FinCEN (the US Treasury's financial crimes unit) banned American banks from making any transfers to or from the MEXC Global crypto exchange. The exchange was named a "primary source of money laundering threat," with claims totaling $16 billion in transactions over five years.
FinCEN (the financial intelligence service under the US Treasury) and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors officially withdrew on November 6 the draft of the so-called Travel Rule - a norm that would have required collecting sender data for any crypto transfer from $250. The draft had been in limbo for more than five years.
The October US labor market report came in more than double expectations, and the probability of a Fed rate hike at the December 9 meeting rose to 73%. US Treasury yields moved higher, and the dollar strengthened.
The US publishes its October employment report - the main release of the week for the dollar. Consensus expects +65 thousand non-farm payrolls after a weak +29 thousand a month earlier, and half an hour later the preliminary Michigan index is released.
Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said on Thursday, November 5, that inflation remains too high and for the Fed it is risk number one. He called the policy path clear: the only debate is about the pace of rate increases, and a gradual step "makes sense."
At 03:00 Moscow time on November 5, the Bank of Japan published the minutes of the September meeting: board members agreed that the rate should continue to be raised. The yen is strengthening for the second day in a row, USD/JPY slid to 158.25, EUR/JPY to 177.90.
The DXY dollar index fell to 101.40 (-0.44% for the day) after the Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Yet the yen failed to capitalize on this: USD/JPY holds near 158.32, having lost just 0.24%.
The issuer of the USDC stablecoin (a coin with an exchange rate pegged to the dollar) laid off about 5% of its employees and spent $9.1 million on it, even though net profit for the quarter grew. The reduction is mentioned in a footnote to the third-quarter report.
The US Department of Labor published the JOLTS report for September - the number of job openings in the labor market. The actual figure came in almost 400 thousand above the forecast, and the previous value was revised upward.
On Tuesday, November 3, the US holds midterm elections - the re-election of Congress in the middle of the presidential term. Democrats need to win back just three seats in the House of Representatives to take it over and stall Donald Trump's agenda in the final two years of his term.
Tether (the issuer of USDT, the largest stablecoin - a coin whose exchange rate is pegged to the dollar) reported $1.5 billion in operating profit for the third quarter of 2026. Since the start of the year, the result has reached $4.5 billion.
Spot gold on Friday lost the psychological mark of $4,000 per ounce and traded at $3,997.25 (-0.58% for the day). Silver fell almost 2%, to $51.147 - the lowest since November 2025. For gold, this is the second consecutive day of decline and about -3.5% for the month.
A day of double macro statistics: first the US data block at 15:30, then the ECB rate decision at 16:15 and the press conference at 16:45. In the evening, reports from Amazon, Intel and Coinbase are added.
On Tuesday XAU/USD hit an intraday low of $3,989, reversed and gained more than 1%, rising to $4,061. The rally occurred despite a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October came in at 91.7 versus a forecast of 81.2 and the September reading of 81.9. The miss versus consensus is more than 10 points, one of the largest surprises for this indicator in recent times.
Overnight into Thursday, XAU/USD lost about 1% and moved to $4,095 - a one-week low. The reason is unusual: the market expects not a cut but a Fed rate hike in December, and money is leaving the metal that pays no interest.
Meta publishes its third-quarter report today, October 21. The market is looking not so much at profit as at capital expenditures (money for data centers, servers and AI chips): the company's annual guidance is $130-145 billion, and sentiment across the entire technology sector depends on it.
XAU/USD touched a fresh weekly low: on Tuesday gold closed at $4,122 (-0.43%), and in the Asian session on Wednesday it traded around $4,115 (-0.2%). This is the fourth consecutive day of decline, all because the market expects the Fed to raise rates rather than cut them.
XAU/USD rose to $4,165 at the start of the Asian session on Friday, October 16, ending a three-day losing streak. The trigger was a weaker dollar and a sharp drop in US Treasury yields
The September report came out on October 15 at 15:31 MSK and turned out to be more than twice as strong as the forecast. But almost all of the growth came from gasoline and restaurants, while the part of the report key for GDP calculation fell short of the forecast.
On October 15 at 15:30 Moscow time, the US released the producer price index for September (PPI - the prices at which factories and suppliers sell goods, that is, inflation at the input to the economy). The monthly increase was +1.3%: more than double expectations and triple August's +0.4%.
US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
Gold declined for three consecutive days after higher-than-expected US inflation was released and dropped to $4,065 per ounce. On the morning of October 15, XAU/USD recovered part of the decline and returned above $4,150 amid a pullback in the dollar and bond yields.
Bitcoin fell from $84,200 to $81,382 over the day, losing about 2.8%, while total liquidations on the crypto market reached $771 million. By the morning of October 13, BTC had recovered above $83,000.
