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Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said on Thursday, November 5, that inflation remains too high and for the Fed it is risk number one. He called the policy path clear: the only debate is about the pace of rate increases, and a gradual step "makes sense."
AXIOS reported that Washington is completing preparations for a possible resumption of large-scale military action against Iran and is already moving additional forces and assets into the region. A day earlier, the oil market was pricing in the exact opposite scenario.
On the evening of November 4, the oil decline deepened from 6% to -10% for the session. During the day the market was already falling after Chuck Schumer's words about ending the war with Iran, and a new downward impulse was given by the statement of the Democratic leader in the House of Representatives.
The Eurozone consumer price report is due on November 4 - forecast at 4.0% year-on-year versus 3.8% a month earlier. The US session adds ADP employment data and the ISM services business activity index, while in the US Democrats have taken both the House and the Senate.
Istat (Italy's national statistics agency) published its preliminary October inflation estimate on October 30 at 13:01 MSK: +5.4% year-on-year versus the expected +4.6% and +4.2% a month earlier. The miss versus consensus was almost a full percentage point - for a eurozone country, that is a lot.
On Thursday, October 22, Asian markets crashed: China's CSI 300 index lost 2% during the session and fell 20% from its June high. A 20% drop from the peak is the formal definition of a bear market.
Trump suspended key sanctions and tariffs against Russia and announced a diesel deal. Oil headed lower in the Asian session on Monday, breaking a seven-day streak of gains.
On October 16 at 15:30 MSK, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (US Bureau of Labor Statistics) published the import price index for September: +1.1% versus August against the expected +0.8%. In annual terms, growth accelerated to 8.1% from 7.0% a month earlier.
