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On November 2, oil fell by about 4% in a session. The reason is not inventories or production, but headlines: media report hopes for a peace deal on Iran.
WTI crude oil futures (the benchmark American grade, traded on the NYMEX exchange) lost 2.25% on Monday and slid to $99.80. This is a continuation of the correction after Friday's peak of $104.03 - a five-month high.
The December Brent futures contract added $1.20 (+1.04%) on Friday and reached $116.08 per barrel after reports of tankers being blown up near the Strait of Hormuz. In October, oil rose by almost 11% - the fourth consecutive month of gains.
On October 28, Tehran publicly rejected the draft agreement passed by Qatari mediators and stated that the nuclear program is not a subject for discussion at all. Oil reacted with a rise: WTI gained more than 1% and traded around $100.80.
On Monday, October 26, the US stock market staged a powerful rebound after the sharp sell-off of the previous week. Two stories at once served as the trigger: Anthropic's stock market debut and the talks in Tehran.
On Friday, October 23, at the start of the US session, BTC plunged to $80,988 - the low of the day. At the same time, Brent crude jumped about 3% to $116 per barrel, for the first time since March 19, and US stocks closed the week in the red.
On Thursday Brent rose 2.6% to $111.66 per barrel - a five-month high, and in the evening Moscow time quotes went above $113. The rally was driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and expectations of a new military escalation around Iran.
Yemen's Houthi movement said on October 22 that it had struck King Fahd Airport in Dammam, the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Defense building and another Saudi Aramco facility. Following this, Saudi Aramco (the world's largest oil company and Saudi Arabia's state company) ordered the evacuation of personnel from its headquarters in Dhahran and their transfer to remote work.
The EUR/USD pair on Thursday, October 22, fell below 1.1200 at the opening of the American session. In the morning, buyers tried to consolidate above 1.1250, but they were knocked out of there: the euro was hit simultaneously by the French debt market and rising oil prices.
France has become Europe's main problem: the yield on its 10-year government bonds (OATs) broke through 5%, and the spread with German paper reached 158-160 basis points - the widest since 2011, that is, since the height of the eurozone debt crisis.
WTI crude oil is rising for the fifth consecutive session and has climbed above $94 per barrel after new attacks in Saudi Arabia. The market is again pricing in heightened risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East, despite rising OPEC+ production.
Iran announced a strike on a third supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz in two days. Only one incident has been independently confirmed, but Brent crude rose to $106.80 amid new risks per
The Brent spot price has diverged noticeably between regions: in Europe, oil is trading around $125.5 per barrel, while in Asia it exceeds $150. This gap points primarily to problems with physical delivery and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
On October 8, WTI oil rose to $90.87 and at one point approached $91.00, gaining about 3% in a day. The rise was supported by new attacks on facilities in Saudi Arabia, risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and a decline in US oil inventories.
Yemen's Houthis announced new attacks on Saudi Arabia. The oil market reacted almost instantly: prices rose by about 4% during the session.
