Live updates: promos, term changes, new challenges, payouts.
On the evening of October 29, the largest prediction platform Polymarket switched the exchange to cancel-only mode. Through a compromised third-party contractor, approximately $2.65 million drained from user accounts in a matter of minutes.
September PCE (personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's key inflation gauge) accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year, while the US economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter - stronger than forecast. Buyers picked up the dollar, and the loonie gave up ground.
The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision today at 16:15 MSK, and at 16:45 MSK the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde will begin. The euro approaches the event at 1.1110 - this is the lowest level of the EUR/USD pair since May 2025.
On the evening of October 28, from 21:52 to 22:05 Moscow time, Warsh answered questions on Fed policy. Main statement: he does not believe in preliminary signals to the market about future regulator decisions.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said on October 28 at 21:36 MSK that the regulator is changing the FOMC meeting schedule (the Fed committee that sets the US key rate) starting next autumn. The total number of meetings will remain the same - 8 per year - but not every one of them will end with a rate decision.
The decision was made by a vote of 10 to 2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack insisted on an immediate 0.25 percentage point increase. Six weeks earlier, the committee had made the same decision unanimously.
Prop firm Goat Funded Trader has launched a separate project, Goat Funded Predictions. There, traders trade not currency pairs but contracts on the outcome of events, and the platform itself runs on Kalshi and calls itself the first prop firm on prediction markets.
On 28 October, UK Chancellor Healey presented the annual budget to Parliament. The OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent state body that produces the forecasts underpinning the budget) downgraded its economic growth estimates, and the free fiscal buffer shrank from £23.6bn in March to £15bn.
On October 28, Tehran publicly rejected the draft agreement passed by Qatari mediators and stated that the nuclear program is not a subject for discussion at all. Oil reacted with a rise: WTI gained more than 1% and traded around $100.80.
Qatari mediators handed Tehran a new draft agreement with the US on Sunday, October 25. Iran is studying the document and has promised an answer by the end of the week — and the market is already pricing in every headline on the subject, although there is no talk of the deal itself yet.
Brent added $1.50 (1.32%) and returned to $115.59 per barrel, WTI rose $1.47 to $101.37. The trigger - a statement by Yemeni Houthis that they hit Ras Tanura, the kingdom's largest oil refinery at 550,000 barrels per day, with a ballistic missile. Riyadh has not confirmed the strike.
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision midday, the Fed in the evening. USD/CAD is rising for a second day and has already bounced from 1.3970-1.3965, the low since September 16, climbing above 1.4000 - a new weekly high.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (the country's central bank) unexpectedly did not raise the key rate overnight on October 28, although almost everyone expected it to: the decision was made by a 4-3 vote. The New Zealand dollar moved lower in the first minutes after the publication.
On Tuesday XAU/USD hit an intraday low of $3,989, reversed and gained more than 1%, rising to $4,061. The rally occurred despite a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
On October 27, Deutsche Börse Group launched round-the-clock trading in stocks from the DAX 40 index — at night and on weekends, trades take place on the 360X venue. The group calls itself the first infrastructure in Europe to offer a 24/7 regime for traditional blue-chip stocks.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday, October 27, that the government is ready for decisive action in the currency market. This is a direct hint at intervention - selling dollars from reserves to support the yen.
On Monday, October 26, the US stock market staged a powerful rebound after the sharp sell-off of the previous week. Two stories at once served as the trigger: Anthropic's stock market debut and the talks in Tehran.
WTI crude (the U.S. benchmark grade, with futures traded on the NYMEX exchange) slipped on Monday from its peak level of $103.28 - a five-month high - to around $100.51. The market paused ahead of a week with three central bank meetings at once.
From October 28 to 30, four central banks issue rate decisions, and on the 29th US GDP and PCE come out at the same time. The market has already priced in rates staying unchanged, so it will be the wording, not the numbers themselves, that moves the instruments.
By 05:50 Moscow time on Monday, Brent is at $114.60 per barrel versus Friday's close of $116.72 - the highest since April. The market has begun giving back part of the war premium, but oil is still twice as expensive as in February.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,009.87 per ounce by 06:42 Moscow time on Monday. This is a rebound after the worst week since June: over the week the metal lost 4% and closed below the round $4,000 mark for the first time since mid-July.
On October 28 at 21:00 Moscow time, the Fed will announce its rate decision, and the market expects almost no move: the probability of a hike fell from 73% to 9.4%. The main focus will be the wording of the statement and the press conference at 21:30 Moscow time.
On Saturday, October 24, BTC lost 2.2% in a day and dropped to $79,700 - its weakest level in more than a month. The reason is not market-related: Washington is urgently evacuating embassy and military base personnel from the region.
Gold fell below the round mark of $4000 per ounce for the first time since July, dropping to $3,986.85. The decline followed the collapse of US technology stocks: investors sold the metal to cover margin calls on other positions.
