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Mary Daly, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (one of the 12 regional Fed banks), said on Friday, November 13: the US economy is fine, but the key problem is inflation, and there is a "shift toward the view that rates need to rise." The dollar on this climbed to its highest since April 2025, gold lost more than 4% over the week.
On the evening of November 13 at 21:15 Moscow time, a report emerged that the Bank of Japan is conducting interventions in the yen. These are direct operations by the regulator in the foreign exchange market, where the central bank itself buys the national currency to stop its weakening.
Joachim Nagel, head of the Bundesbank and a member of the ECB Governing Council, said on 13 November that under the current picture the regulator will have to act once more. The euro gained 0.23% against the dollar on this.
Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on Friday, November 13, on Ethereum CNBC that if data worsen, the Fed will act more aggressively on rates. The dollar thereby moved to a 19-month peak, gold lost more than 4% over the week.
The pair reached 159.95 - right up against the round 160 mark and the highest since September 2. Japanese Finance Ministry currency official Atsushi Mimura said markets should not forget about intervention risks, and the rate pulled back from that zone.
DXY (dollar index, the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies) reached 103.048 during the Asian session on Thursday - for the first time since early April 2025. In the previous session it gained 0.7% after US inflation came in above forecast.
The yen weakens for the second day in a row after October US inflation data. The market has almost fully priced in a Fed rate hike in December, and less than a figure remains to the 160 level, near which Tokyo has already entered the market with interventions.
Clare Lombardelli, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, told the Guardian that she does not rule out a rate hike at the December meeting. For a market accustomed to expecting cuts from the British central bank, this is a reversal in tone.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks today, November 6, at 19:00 MSK. Japan's rate is currently 1.25% - the highest since April 1995, and Ueda is expected to hint whether the next move will come on December 18.
The US publishes its October employment report - the main release of the week for the dollar. Consensus expects +65 thousand non-farm payrolls after a weak +29 thousand a month earlier, and half an hour later the preliminary Michigan index is released.
On Thursday, November 5, the Japanese yen became the strongest currency of the day: money fled from US tech stocks into it, and the Bank of Japan's minutes added to expectations of a December rate hike.
At 03:00 Moscow time on November 5, the Bank of Japan published the minutes of the September meeting: board members agreed that the rate should continue to be raised. The yen is strengthening for the second day in a row, USD/JPY slid to 158.25, EUR/JPY to 177.90.
The DXY dollar index fell to 101.40 (-0.44% for the day) after the Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Yet the yen failed to capitalize on this: USD/JPY holds near 158.32, having lost just 0.24%.
European countries will sell 42 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves over three months. France announced this, Bloomberg reports.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday, October 27, that the government is ready for decisive action in the currency market. This is a direct hint at intervention - selling dollars from reserves to support the yen.
The US President invoked the Defense Production Act - a 1950 act passed during the Korean War. The American oil industry has been officially declared vital to national defense, and this opens a direct path for the Pentagon to finance its development.
On October 16, the U.S. Treasury publicly stated that Japan is no longer living in deflation, which means the yen exchange rate must reflect this. This is a repeated call for Tokyo to strengthen the JPY against the USD.
At the Bank of Japan, they are leaning toward leaving the rate unchanged at the October 30 meeting. Against this backdrop, the probability of an October hike has fallen to about 10%, and USD/JPY is holding near 158.50, close to monthly highs.
USD/JPY rose to 158.44, and the yen lost about 0.5% after the release of the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions. The market saw no signal in the document for a rate hike as early as October, and the absence of currency interventions further increased pressure on the yen.
