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Bank of England Deputy Governor does not rule out a rate hike in December
Clare Lombardelli, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, told the Guardian that she does not rule out a rate hike at the December meeting. For a market accustomed to expecting cuts from the British central bank, this is a reversal in tone.

Coinbase received a full federal trust license from the OCC
The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC, the federal bank regulator) upgraded the trust status of the largest American crypto exchange from conditional to full. Now Coinbase conducts cryptocurrency custody and payments under federal supervision, rather than only under individual state licenses.

After climbing above $4,100 amid the Nasdaq crash, the gold price pulled back a day later
On Thursday XAU/USD gained about 1%: it rebounded from $4,057 and settled above $4,100 amid the sell-off in US equities. On Friday morning the gains did not hold - the dollar recovered its losses, and the metal slipped back below $4,100 ahead of the release of the US jobs report.

Barkin of the Fed: US inflation is risk number one, the rate should be raised gradually
Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said on Thursday, November 5, that inflation remains too high and for the Fed it is risk number one. He called the policy path clear: the only debate is about the pace of rate increases, and a gradual step "makes sense."

Dollar at five-week low ahead of US jobs data and Bank of England rate decision
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) headed toward the 101.00 area on Wednesday, November 4 - a five-week low - losing about 0.5% and falling below 101.50. On Thursday, two catalysts for movement hit the market at once: US labor market statistics and the Bank of England meeting.

Binance expanded proof of reserves to 44 tokens: crypto exchange hacked for $6.34 billion
The world's largest crypto exchange published an expanded reconciliation of client funds after a $6.34 billion theft and stated that it had replenished about 98% of the affected assets. Withdrawals, however, are not fully open.

ADP: US private sector added 86K jobs in October - what does this mean for NFP
The ADP employment report for October was released on November 4 at 16:15 MSK: +86K private sector jobs versus the expected +69K and +90K the month before.

Circle cut 5% of its staff: USDC stablecoin issuer closed the quarter with a $226 million profit
The issuer of the USDC stablecoin (a coin with an exchange rate pegged to the dollar) laid off about 5% of its employees and spent $9.1 million on it, even though net profit for the quarter grew. The reduction is mentioned in a footnote to the third-quarter report.

EUR/USD at 1.1280: 4% eurozone inflation weighs on the ECB rate, dollar slumped after the elections
The euro gained more than 0.6% against the dollar on Wednesday and approached four-week highs. Two reasons came together at once: price growth in the eurozone accelerated to a three-year peak, and the Democrats won the US midterm congressional elections.

US ADP at 16:15 MSK: 69 thousand jobs expected vs 90 thousand a month earlier
Today ADP Research Institute publishes its report on private sector employment in the US for October. The consensus is +69 thousand jobs after +90 thousand in September. This is the first labor market figure this week, followed by NFP on Friday.

US job openings: 7.52 million vs. expected 7.15 million
The US Department of Labor published the JOLTS report for September - the number of job openings in the labor market. The actual figure came in almost 400 thousand above the forecast, and the previous value was revised upward.

UK PMI: 53.1 vs forecast 51.8 - best growth in eight months
The preliminary business activity indices for October came in above forecasts across all three sectors, yet the pound barely gained against the dollar - but it pushed the euro to a 17-month low.

Japan's core inflation broke through 2% for the first time since December 2023, USD/JPY moved to 156.25
September consumer price data was released at 02:30 Moscow time and came in above August levels across all measures. The yen strengthened, and the market is once again betting on a Bank of Japan rate hike in December.

UK unemployment fell to 4.7% - the pound hit a weekly high
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that unemployment fell to 4.7% in the three months to August, versus 4.9% in the previous quarter. This is the lowest in more than a year, and the market had expected the previous level to be maintained.

Waller: the Fed rate should rise further, but not at every meeting
Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that inflation in the US remains too high and further rate hikes are still necessary. At the same time, new steps may come with pauses, rather than at every consecutive meeting.

Euro breaks below 1.1300 - lowest since May 2025
EUR/USD falls for the fourth day in a row and has reached 1.1265, the lowest level since May 2025. Over four weeks, the euro has lost about 2.8% against the dollar amid a strong dollar, rising US yields and French debt risks.

US labor market report on Friday: the Fed rate is already 4%, 10-year yields are heading toward 5.20%
On Friday, October 2, at 15:30 Moscow time, the US employment report is released. This week this is the main macro event: the bond market has already repriced levels, and the Fed raised rates for the first time in more than three years. The Employment Situation release is indeed scheduled for October 2 at 08:30 ET, that is, 15:30 Moscow time.
