Live updates: promos, term changes, new challenges, payouts.
Japanese producer output prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in October instead of the expected 6.5%. This increases pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise the rate on December 17-18 - the third time in a calendar year, something that has not happened since 1989.
XAU/USD fell to $3,985 per ounce - the second decline in a row. The trigger is October US inflation: after the report, futures price a Fed rate hike at the December meeting as a done deal.
October inflation in the US came in above forecast, and the government bond market responded with a sell-off. The DXY dollar index stands at 102.22 - a high since October 28, and the market considers a Fed rate hike on December 9 almost a done deal: 91.9% according to CME FedWatch versus 84% the day before.
US consumer prices rose 0.4% month-over-month in October versus the expected 0.23-0.3%. Immediately after the release at 16:30 MSK, exchanges forcibly closed roughly $200 million in long positions in crypto; Bitcoin and gold moved lower.
The bank became one of the first users of the new tokenization service from DTCC, the clearing center through which US securities transactions pass. US stocks and Treasury bonds have been converted into tokenized form.
On US congressional voting day, US index futures diverged: Dow Jones -0.5%, S&P 500 -0.15%, Nasdaq 100 flat. The market holds positions ahead of the first vote count results.
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings has changed its outlook on France's credit rating from 'stable' to 'negative'. The decision was unscheduled: agencies usually publish revisions according to a pre-announced calendar.
On 28 October, UK Chancellor Healey presented the annual budget to Parliament. The OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent state body that produces the forecasts underpinning the budget) downgraded its economic growth estimates, and the free fiscal buffer shrank from £23.6bn in March to £15bn.
On October 28, The Depository Trust Company (DTC) - the main US depository, through which clearing of trades on NASDAQ passes - activated the DTCC Tokenization Service. Traditional stocks and bonds can now be converted into tokens on a blockchain and sent to digital wallets while retaining the same ownership rights.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday, October 27, that the government is ready for decisive action in the currency market. This is a direct hint at intervention - selling dollars from reserves to support the yen.
September consumer price data was released at 02:30 Moscow time and came in above August levels across all measures. The yen strengthened, and the market is once again betting on a Bank of Japan rate hike in December.
The EUR/USD pair on Thursday, October 22, fell below 1.1200 at the opening of the American session. In the morning, buyers tried to consolidate above 1.1250, but they were knocked out of there: the euro was hit simultaneously by the French debt market and rising oil prices.
France has become Europe's main problem: the yield on its 10-year government bonds (OATs) broke through 5%, and the spread with German paper reached 158-160 basis points - the widest since 2011, that is, since the height of the eurozone debt crisis.
Today at 09:00 Moscow time, the UK reports its September consumer price index. Consensus is +3.4% year-on-year vs 3.1% in August. If the figure is confirmed, this will be the third consecutive month of acceleration.
The US stock market fell sharply after higher inflation in the US. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9%, the S&P 500 - 1.1%, and the sell-off in AI- and chip-related stocks then spread to Asia, where the KOSPI plunged 8%.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $244.1 million on October 8, and a day earlier the outflow was $484.9 million. Over two sessions, about $729 million exited the category, while Ethereum ETFs remain in the red for the eighth consecutive trading day.
Initial jobless claims in the US came in at 197K versus a forecast of 200K. The market read the data as a signal of no mass layoffs: government bond yields rose, while US indices moved lower.
The DXY dollar index rose to 102.35, approaching the yearly high of 102.50. The main support for the dollar comes from US Treasury yields, which are near more than two-decade highs.
On October 7, Bitcoin broke through $83,000 and dropped to $82,734 on Bitstamp, updating its October low. Pressure came from external markets: Brent rose above $102, and US government bond yields reached 24-year highs.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lori Logan said the Fed rate needs to be raised by at least another 50 basis points so that monetary policy becomes moderately restrictive and helps bring inflation back to the 2% target.
On Friday, October 2, at 15:30 Moscow time, the US employment report is released. This week this is the main macro event: the bond market has already repriced levels, and the Fed raised rates for the first time in more than three years. The Employment Situation release is indeed scheduled for October 2 at 08:30 ET, that is, 15:30 Moscow time.
