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On the morning of November 11, US index futures reversed upward: the market received a signal of de-escalation around Iran and strong earnings in the artificial intelligence sector. A day earlier, the same indices closed lower after inflation data.
AXIOS reported that Washington is completing preparations for a possible resumption of large-scale military action against Iran and is already moving additional forces and assets into the region. A day earlier, the oil market was pricing in the exact opposite scenario.
US Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said on the evening of November 4 that the war against Iran must end and that some Republicans have joined the Democrats on this issue. On that headline, oil fell by about 6%.
On the morning of November 4, gold traded around $3,930 per ounce, recovering from a drop to lows last seen in September 2025. The reason is the collapse of the dollar after the first results of the midterm congressional elections held on November 3.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, Iran's elite armed forces) stated on November 4 that four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting naval mines while passing along a route Iran calls prohibited. Two more vessels, according to the same account, were detained.
On November 3, Arab TV channels reported progress on the Iranian dossier: Washington approved a draft memorandum of understanding with Tehran, and the parties are discussing how to announce a temporary agreement. For oil, this is the most sensitive geopolitical topic of the year.
On Tuesday morning BTC lost about 2% and is trading just below $77,000, erasing Monday's rebound. The trigger was a sell-off in the US tech sector: the Nasdaq 100 index dropped 10% from its recent high, meaning it entered a correction.
On November 2, US stocks rebounded sharply after recent sell-offs. There are two reasons: anticipation of a peace deal on Iran and public statements by the White House's chief economic adviser that there is no crisis in the artificial intelligence sector.
On the evening of November 2, oil lost about 5% - the market reacted to the statement by the President of Iran that the conflict with the US is going to be resolved through dialogue.
On November 2, oil fell by about 4% in a session. The reason is not inventories or production, but headlines: media report hopes for a peace deal on Iran.
The OPEC+ alliance (an association of oil-exporting countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia that regulates production volumes and thereby influences world prices) decided on November 1 not to change production quotas for December. The next meeting is on November 29.
On 28 October, UK Chancellor Healey presented the annual budget to Parliament. The OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent state body that produces the forecasts underpinning the budget) downgraded its economic growth estimates, and the free fiscal buffer shrank from £23.6bn in March to £15bn.
On October 28, Tehran publicly rejected the draft agreement passed by Qatari mediators and stated that the nuclear program is not a subject for discussion at all. Oil reacted with a rise: WTI gained more than 1% and traded around $100.80.
Qatari mediators handed Tehran a new draft agreement with the US on Sunday, October 25. Iran is studying the document and has promised an answer by the end of the week — and the market is already pricing in every headline on the subject, although there is no talk of the deal itself yet.
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision midday, the Fed in the evening. USD/CAD is rising for a second day and has already bounced from 1.3970-1.3965, the low since September 16, climbing above 1.4000 - a new weekly high.
On Monday, October 26, the US stock market staged a powerful rebound after the sharp sell-off of the previous week. Two stories at once served as the trigger: Anthropic's stock market debut and the talks in Tehran.
WTI crude (the U.S. benchmark grade, with futures traded on the NYMEX exchange) slipped on Monday from its peak level of $103.28 - a five-month high - to around $100.51. The market paused ahead of a week with three central bank meetings at once.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,009.87 per ounce by 06:42 Moscow time on Monday. This is a rebound after the worst week since June: over the week the metal lost 4% and closed below the round $4,000 mark for the first time since mid-July.
On Saturday, October 24, BTC lost 2.2% in a day and dropped to $79,700 - its weakest level in more than a month. The reason is not market-related: Washington is urgently evacuating embassy and military base personnel from the region.
On October 23, Brent crude passed two round marks in a matter of minutes: at 16:49 Moscow time the price went above $115, and already at 16:58 Moscow time - above $116. The reason - a sharp escalation of rhetoric around Iran.
The US President invoked the Defense Production Act - a 1950 act passed during the Korean War. The American oil industry has been officially declared vital to national defense, and this opens a direct path for the Pentagon to finance its development.
On Thursday Brent rose 2.6% to $111.66 per barrel - a five-month high, and in the evening Moscow time quotes went above $113. The rally was driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and expectations of a new military escalation around Iran.
Yemen's Houthi movement said on October 22 that it had struck King Fahd Airport in Dammam, the Saudi Arabian Ministry of Defense building and another Saudi Aramco facility. Following this, Saudi Aramco (the world's largest oil company and Saudi Arabia's state company) ordered the evacuation of personnel from its headquarters in Dhahran and their transfer to remote work.
Overnight into Thursday, XAU/USD lost about 1% and moved to $4,095 - a one-week low. The reason is unusual: the market expects not a cut but a Fed rate hike in December, and money is leaving the metal that pays no interest.
