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The Fed's Open Market Committee voted 10 to 2 to keep the rate in the 3.75-4.00% range, but left the possibility of a hike as early as December in its statement. HSBC, in its November 2 currency review, confirmed its view of a strong dollar through 2027, warning that the path there will be bumpy.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ, the country's central bank) will announce its rate decision on Friday, October 30. Almost no one expects a change - the rate is expected to stay at 1.25%. All the interest lies elsewhere: what the regulator will say about December, where the market sees a hike with a probability of about 80%.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday, October 27, that the government is ready for decisive action in the currency market. This is a direct hint at intervention - selling dollars from reserves to support the yen.
September consumer price data was released at 02:30 Moscow time and came in above August levels across all measures. The yen strengthened, and the market is once again betting on a Bank of Japan rate hike in December.
US September inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year versus a forecast of 3.6%. After the release, the market sharply raised expectations for another Fed rate hike, the DXY dollar index rose to 102.84, and EUR/USD fell to a 17-month low.
Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the ECB Governing Council, said that at the next meeting the regulator will most likely raise the rate. For the market, this is an important signal, since expectations of a tighter policy directly affect the euro and asset yields in the eurozone.
On October 12, Bitcoin rose to $84,254, its highest since last Wednesday, but then lost about 2.2% from its peak and returned to $82,500. Pressure came from the oil market: WTI rose above $94, and Brent - to $107.25.
Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that inflation in the US remains too high and further rate hikes are still necessary. At the same time, new steps may come with pauses, rather than at every consecutive meeting.
EUR/USD lost about 0.85% on Monday and fell just above 1.1150, hitting its lowest since May 2025. Pressure on the euro intensified due to rising French government bond yields and uncertainty surrounding the country's budget.
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