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In October, China's economy slowed again: the manufacturing, services and composite business activity indices dropped into contraction territory. The composite indicator plunged from 50.7 to 49.3 - the worst combination in recent months.
On Thursday, October 22, Asian markets crashed: China's CSI 300 index lost 2% during the session and fell 20% from its June high. A 20% drop from the peak is the formal definition of a bear market.
On October 20 the calendar is packed from night until late evening: at 04:15 Moscow time China announces its benchmark LPR rate, at 12:00 the ZEW indices for Germany and the Eurozone are released, at 15:15 - weekly ADP employment data for the US, and at 23:05 Netflix reports. The movement will be stretched across the whole day rather than gathered into a single candle.
At 05:00 Moscow time, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported economic growth of 4.5% in the third quarter against expectations of 4.4%. The data came in better than forecast on almost all counts, and risk appetite lifted Bitcoin, Nasdaq futures and Asian stocks.
On October 16 at 15:30 MSK, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (US Bureau of Labor Statistics) published the import price index for September: +1.1% versus August against the expected +0.8%. In annual terms, growth accelerated to 8.1% from 7.0% a month earlier.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) has lost over the course of a day the entire spike it got from the hot US inflation report, and by Thursday was down more than 0.50% for the day.
Iran announced a strike on a third supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz in two days. Only one incident has been independently confirmed, but Brent crude rose to $106.80 amid new risks per
Global exchange-traded funds backed by physical gold attracted $30.7 billion in the third quarter of 2026. This is the largest quarterly inflow in the entire history of observations, and metal holdings in the funds hit an all-time high.
Bitcoin fell from $84,200 to $81,382 over the day, losing about 2.8%, while total liquidations on the crypto market reached $771 million. By the morning of October 13, BTC had recovered above $83,000.
Gold is trading around $4,215 on Monday and holds above $4,200. The metal is supported by the largest inflows into gold ETFs in four years, central bank buying and a weaker dollar.
Gold declined after the publication of the minutes of the September Fed meeting. XAU/USD briefly dropped to $4,066, the lowest level in about two months, amid a stronger dollar and rising US bond yields.
WTI recovered intraday from the morning decline from around $88.00 and rose to nearly $91.50. The main driver was China's temporary suspension of oil product exports during the national holidays.
