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On October 28 at 16:45 MSK, the Bank of Canada raised its key rate from 2.25% to 2.5% - exactly what the market expected. The main surprise was not the move itself, but the signal: the regulator allowed that another hike may be needed.
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision midday, the Fed in the evening. USD/CAD is rising for a second day and has already bounced from 1.3970-1.3965, the low since September 16, climbing above 1.4000 - a new weekly high.
On Friday, the USD/CAD pair fell below the psychological level of 1.4000 and traded around 1.3975 - a one-month low. This is the seventh consecutive losing session for the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, and the second week of decline in a row.
Statistics Canada reported for September: Canadian industry selling prices rose 2.0% from August versus 1.3% a month earlier. The data were released on October 22 at 15:33 Moscow time - six days before the Bank of Canada meeting.
On Wednesday, October 14 at 15:30 MSK, the US will publish September CPI. The market expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% year over year, while the monthly core reading, on the contrary, may slow to 0.2%.
In September, Canada lost 68.3 thousand jobs, while employment growth was expected at 7 thousand. Unemployment rose to 6.5%, and USD/CAD climbed to 1.4276 amid a sharp drop in Canadian bond yields.
USD/CAD rose to 1.4293 on October 6, an 18-month high. The Canadian dollar is declining for the third session in a row amid weak oil, and the pair itself already looks technically overbought.
