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In the US midterm elections, Democrats won both the Senate and the House of Representatives. US index futures fell overnight but by the European session on November 4 had bought back the dip and turned positive.
Today ADP Research Institute publishes its report on private sector employment in the US for October. The consensus is +69 thousand jobs after +90 thousand in September. This is the first labor market figure this week, followed by NFP on Friday.
As of 12:31 Moscow time on November 4, silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $52.01 per troy ounce versus $49.67 at Tuesday's close. That is +4.71% in one session, according to FXStreet.
The Eurozone consumer price report is due on November 4 - forecast at 4.0% year-on-year versus 3.8% a month earlier. The US session adds ADP employment data and the ISM services business activity index, while in the US Democrats have taken both the House and the Senate.
On the morning of November 4, gold traded around $3,930 per ounce, recovering from a drop to lows last seen in September 2025. The reason is the collapse of the dollar after the first results of the midterm congressional elections held on November 3.
Gold closed October with a 6.87% decline, and on Friday it hit a new yearly low of $3,870. On Monday the metal is being bought back: XAU/USD around $3,900, up 0.64% for the day, with an intraday high of $3,919. The metal is still about 30% below the all-time peak of $5,600 set in January.
On Monday, November 2, spot gold is trading around $3,906.39 per ounce - up $30.55 (+0.79%) from Friday's close of $3,875.84. The rebound follows Friday's plunge of nearly 3.5% to a one-year low. Reuters recorded $3,900.05 (+0.6%) at the start of the Asian session.
On Friday, October 30, spot gold closed around $3,875 per ounce: down 3.62% for the session and down 3.74% for the week. From the August level of roughly $4,700, the metal is now 18% lower.
From November 2 to 6, the market will get four reasons to move at once: the US midterm congressional elections, decisions from four central banks and the US employment report on Friday. The dollar enters this week after two weeks of decline and, for the first time in a long while, at its 200-week moving average.
The euro is weakening against all major currencies due to the state of France's public finances and a sell-off in its bond market. The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1145 and is falling for a fifth session in a row - on the eve of back-to-back Fed and ECB decisions.
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the inflation forecast looks worse than the bank's own calculations. AUD/USD rose about 0.45%, broke through the round 0.7000 level and reached 0.7017 - a two-week high and the fourth consecutive gain.
On October 20 the calendar is packed from night until late evening: at 04:15 Moscow time China announces its benchmark LPR rate, at 12:00 the ZEW indices for Germany and the Eurozone are released, at 15:15 - weekly ADP employment data for the US, and at 23:05 Netflix reports. The movement will be stretched across the whole day rather than gathered into a single candle.
Today at 15:30 MSK, the US publishes the September employment report. The market expects about +90 thousand new jobs and unemployment at 4.1%, but heightened attention will be on wages amid a sharp rise in US bond yields.
EUR/USD falls for the fourth day in a row and has reached 1.1265, the lowest level since May 2025. Over four weeks, the euro has lost about 2.8% against the dollar amid a strong dollar, rising US yields and French debt risks.
