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In October, China's economy slowed again: the manufacturing, services and composite business activity indices dropped into contraction territory. The composite indicator plunged from 50.7 to 49.3 - the worst combination in recent months.
On Thursday, October 22, Asian markets crashed: China's CSI 300 index lost 2% during the session and fell 20% from its June high. A 20% drop from the peak is the formal definition of a bear market.
Overnight on October 21, Bitcoin broke through the $84,000 ceiling for the first time in a week and reached $84,726, but by the morning of October 22 it had slid to $82,600. Crypto reversed course following futures on US tech indices.
According to calculations by analytics firm K33, BTC's 28-day realized volatility (a measure of the actual magnitude of price fluctuations over a period) has dropped to 1.2% - nearly the lowest value for all of 2026. The market has frozen right before the Fed meeting and the US elections.
On October 20 the calendar is packed from night until late evening: at 04:15 Moscow time China announces its benchmark LPR rate, at 12:00 the ZEW indices for Germany and the Eurozone are released, at 15:15 - weekly ADP employment data for the US, and at 23:05 Netflix reports. The movement will be stretched across the whole day rather than gathered into a single candle.
At 05:00 Moscow time, China's National Bureau of Statistics reported economic growth of 4.5% in the third quarter against expectations of 4.4%. The data came in better than forecast on almost all counts, and risk appetite lifted Bitcoin, Nasdaq futures and Asian stocks.
On October 16 at 15:30 MSK, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (US Bureau of Labor Statistics) published the import price index for September: +1.1% versus August against the expected +0.8%. In annual terms, growth accelerated to 8.1% from 7.0% a month earlier.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) has lost over the course of a day the entire spike it got from the hot US inflation report, and by Thursday was down more than 0.50% for the day.
Iran announced a strike on a third supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz in two days. Only one incident has been independently confirmed, but Brent crude rose to $106.80 amid new risks per
Global exchange-traded funds backed by physical gold attracted $30.7 billion in the third quarter of 2026. This is the largest quarterly inflow in the entire history of observations, and metal holdings in the funds hit an all-time high.
Bitcoin fell from $84,200 to $81,382 over the day, losing about 2.8%, while total liquidations on the crypto market reached $771 million. By the morning of October 13, BTC had recovered above $83,000.
Gold is trading around $4,215 on Monday and holds above $4,200. The metal is supported by the largest inflows into gold ETFs in four years, central bank buying and a weaker dollar.
Gold declined after the publication of the minutes of the September Fed meeting. XAU/USD briefly dropped to $4,066, the lowest level in about two months, amid a stronger dollar and rising US bond yields.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Fed publishes the minutes of the September 15-16 meeting. The market will look in the document for details of the debate within the committee on inflation, the labor market and the further rate trajectory ahead of the next meeting on October 27-28.
WTI recovered intraday from the morning decline from around $88.00 and rose to nearly $91.50. The main driver was China's temporary suspension of oil product exports during the national holidays.
