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On the evening of November 13 at 21:15 Moscow time, a report emerged that the Bank of Japan is conducting interventions in the yen. These are direct operations by the regulator in the foreign exchange market, where the central bank itself buys the national currency to stop its weakening.
Japanese producer output prices rose 7.1% year-on-year in October instead of the expected 6.5%. This increases pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise the rate on December 17-18 - the third time in a calendar year, something that has not happened since 1989.
DXY (dollar index, the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies) reached 103.048 during the Asian session on Thursday - for the first time since early April 2025. In the previous session it gained 0.7% after US inflation came in above forecast.
The yen weakens for the second day in a row after October US inflation data. The market has almost fully priced in a Fed rate hike in December, and less than a figure remains to the 160 level, near which Tokyo has already entered the market with interventions.
October inflation in the US came in above forecast, and the government bond market responded with a sell-off. The DXY dollar index stands at 102.22 - a high since October 28, and the market considers a Fed rate hike on December 9 almost a done deal: 91.9% according to CME FedWatch versus 84% the day before.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks today, November 6, at 19:00 MSK. Japan's rate is currently 1.25% - the highest since April 1995, and Ueda is expected to hint whether the next move will come on December 18.
On Thursday, November 5, the Japanese yen became the strongest currency of the day: money fled from US tech stocks into it, and the Bank of Japan's minutes added to expectations of a December rate hike.
At 03:00 Moscow time on November 5, the Bank of Japan published the minutes of the September meeting: board members agreed that the rate should continue to be raised. The yen is strengthening for the second day in a row, USD/JPY slid to 158.25, EUR/JPY to 177.90.
The DXY dollar index fell to 101.40 (-0.44% for the day) after the Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Yet the yen failed to capitalize on this: USD/JPY holds near 158.32, having lost just 0.24%.
The Bank of Japan kept its short-term rate at 1.25% with an 8-1 vote and noticeably tightened its language: core inflation hit the 2% target for the first time since 2013. The yen is strengthening, USD/JPY falls for the third day in a row.
On the evening of October 28, the Fed left the rate at 3.75-4%, although US inflation is still above the 2% target. The decision was not unanimous: two votes went for a 0.25 percentage point hike - a rare picture that immediately pushed currencies in different directions.
The pair recovered from a drop to a monthly low around 156.00 and returned almost to 158.00 in a V-shaped move - the third consecutive rising session. The dollar is being pulled up ahead of the Fed decision, which will be released today at 21:00 Moscow time.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday, October 27, that the government is ready for decisive action in the currency market. This is a direct hint at intervention - selling dollars from reserves to support the yen.
On Monday, October 26, the dollar strengthened against major currencies ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The yen is the weakest in the basket, the pound slipped from its recent peak of 1.3419 to levels below 1.3350.
September consumer price data was released at 02:30 Moscow time and came in above August levels across all measures. The yen strengthened, and the market is once again betting on a Bank of Japan rate hike in December.
On October 16, the U.S. Treasury publicly stated that Japan is no longer living in deflation, which means the yen exchange rate must reflect this. This is a repeated call for Tokyo to strengthen the JPY against the USD.
On Friday morning, three signals at once from the Bank of Japan in favor of a further rate hike supported the yen, and the USD/JPY pair slid to 157.85. The regulator's next meeting is on October 29-30.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at 06:30 MSK at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and refused to give any hints on the rate. The dollar index DXY (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of six currencies) moved to 101.82, down 0.22% and a 10-day low.
At the Bank of Japan, they are leaning toward leaving the rate unchanged at the October 30 meeting. Against this backdrop, the probability of an October hike has fallen to about 10%, and USD/JPY is holding near 158.50, close to monthly highs.
Japanese Metaplanet announced the issuance of bonds worth ¥52 billion ($329 million). The funds will go toward repaying Bitcoin-backed loans and buying back shares, while the company does not plan to sell its 44,000 BTC.
The DXY dollar index broke through 102.50 and reached its highest level since April 2025. Since the September low, the index has gained about 4% and is heading for a fourth consecutive rising week amid demand for safe-haven assets and a new wave of geopolitical tensions.
September Tokyo inflation came in above forecast across all key measures. Core CPI accelerated to 2.7%, while the measure excluding food and energy reached 3.0%. The yen responded with strengthening, and USD/JPY dropped below 158.00.
USD/JPY rose to 158.44, and the yen lost about 0.5% after the release of the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions. The market saw no signal in the document for a rate hike as early as October, and the absence of currency interventions further increased pressure on the yen.
