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The prop company has rewritten three rules in its evaluation programs: the earnings limit around the release of macroeconomic statistics has tripled, the minimum trade holding time has been halved, and the ban on copying trades has been lifted entirely. The changes were announced on November 11.
Austin Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on Monday, November 9, that service price growth has been accelerating for several months. A day before the US inflation data, this is the most inconvenient argument for those expecting a rapid rate cut.
On the morning of November 3, oil rose by about 2% - the market reacted to a report by The Wall Street Journal that the US is carrying out covert strikes on Iran.
Istat (Italy's national statistics agency) published its preliminary October inflation estimate on October 30 at 13:01 MSK: +5.4% year-on-year versus the expected +4.6% and +4.2% a month earlier. The miss versus consensus was almost a full percentage point - for a eurozone country, that is a lot.
The second-largest economy in the eurozone contracted: the preliminary GDP estimate (total volume of goods and services produced) for July-September showed -0.1% quarter-on-quarter against a consensus of +0.1%. The data was released on October 30 at 09:30 Moscow time.
A day of double macro statistics: first the US data block at 15:30, then the ECB rate decision at 16:15 and the press conference at 16:45. In the evening, reports from Amazon, Intel and Coinbase are added.
The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision today at 16:15 MSK, and at 16:45 MSK the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde will begin. The euro approaches the event at 1.1110 - this is the lowest level of the EUR/USD pair since May 2025.
On Saturday, October 24, BTC lost 2.2% in a day and dropped to $79,700 - its weakest level in more than a month. The reason is not market-related: Washington is urgently evacuating embassy and military base personnel from the region.
Preliminary eurozone inflation for September accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year versus a forecast of 3.7% and 3.2% a month earlier. The core measure rose to 2.5%, which strengthens the arguments against a rapid easing of ECB policy.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lori Logan said the Fed rate needs to be raised by at least another 50 basis points so that monetary policy becomes moderately restrictive and helps bring inflation back to the 2% target.
USD/JPY rose to 158.44, and the yen lost about 0.5% after the release of the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions. The market saw no signal in the document for a rate hike as early as October, and the absence of currency interventions further increased pressure on the yen.
EUR/USD falls for the fourth day in a row and has reached 1.1265, the lowest level since May 2025. Over four weeks, the euro has lost about 2.8% against the dollar amid a strong dollar, rising US yields and French debt risks.
Gold first rose to $4,220 after soft US inflation data, but then completely erased its gains and fell to $4,139-4,150. Pressure was intensified by rising US Treasury yields, a strong dollar and more hawkish rate expectations
US Core PCE for August slowed to 3.0% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.3%. After the release, the dollar and government bond yields declined, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in October decreased.
Today, September 30, at 15:30 MSK, the US releases Core PCE. The forecast is 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier. The indicator is important for assessing the further trajectory of the Fed rate.
EUR/USD on Monday touched 1.1350 - its lowest level since late July. The reason: ECB chief Christine Lagarde signaled that the regulator is in no hurry to raise rates, even though the market had bet on the opposite.
