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The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds has risen to 5.70%, the highest level since 2002. Rising yields increase pressure on gold, raise borrowing costs and make stocks less attractive relative to government debt.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Fed publishes the minutes of the September 15-16 meeting. The market will look in the document for details of the debate within the committee on inflation, the labor market and the further rate trajectory ahead of the next meeting on October 27-28.
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter versus expected 456,896. The result came in about 6.5% above the forecast, but at the same time 2% lower than a year earlier.
EUR/USD falls for the fourth day in a row and has reached 1.1265, the lowest level since May 2025. Over four weeks, the euro has lost about 2.8% against the dollar amid a strong dollar, rising US yields and French debt risks.
After softer inflation data, the market sharply lowered expectations for a Fed rate hike in October. The probability of such a decision dropped to about 35-37%, whereas at the beginning of the week it exceeded 70%
US Core PCE for August slowed to 3.0% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.3%. After the release, the dollar and government bond yields declined, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in October decreased.
Today, September 30, at 15:30 MSK, the US releases Core PCE. The forecast is 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier. The indicator is important for assessing the further trajectory of the Fed rate.
