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The US Department of Labor published the JOLTS report for September - the number of job openings in the labor market. The actual figure came in almost 400 thousand above the forecast, and the previous value was revised upward.
On Friday, October 30, at 20:45 Moscow time, Dallas Fed President Lori Logan said that bringing inflation back under control will require at least two more quarter-percentage-point rate hikes. Gold, amid expectations of tightening, hit a new low for the year.
A day of double macro statistics: first the US data block at 15:30, then the ECB rate decision at 16:15 and the press conference at 16:45. In the evening, reports from Amazon, Intel and Coinbase are added.
The US Department of Labor reported: for the week ending October 17, initial jobless claims totaled 194K versus the expected 200K. This is one of the lowest levels in recent months, and the dollar immediately recovered part of its recent decline.
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the inflation forecast looks worse than the bank's own calculations. AUD/USD rose about 0.45%, broke through the round 0.7000 level and reached 0.7017 - a two-week high and the fourth consecutive gain.
US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
Initial jobless claims in the US came in at 197K versus a forecast of 200K. The market read the data as a signal of no mass layoffs: government bond yields rose, while US indices moved lower.
Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that inflation in the US remains too high and further rate hikes are still necessary. At the same time, new steps may come with pauses, rather than at every consecutive meeting.
Today, October 8, from 14:30 to 15:30 MSK, three important macro events come out in a row: the ECB protocols, a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and weekly US jobless claims. In one hour-long window, the euro, pound and dollar will be under reaction.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lori Logan said the Fed rate needs to be raised by at least another 50 basis points so that monetary policy becomes moderately restrictive and helps bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Today at 15:30 MSK, the US publishes the September employment report. The market expects about +90 thousand new jobs and unemployment at 4.1%, but heightened attention will be on wages amid a sharp rise in US bond yields.
In August, the number of job openings in the US declined to 7.079 million versus the expected 7.225-7.230 million. At the same time, hires and layoffs remained nearly unchanged.
On Friday, October 2, at 15:30 Moscow time, the US employment report is released. This week this is the main macro event: the bond market has already repriced levels, and the Fed raised rates for the first time in more than three years. The Employment Situation release is indeed scheduled for October 2 at 08:30 ET, that is, 15:30 Moscow time.
