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On October 2, the SEC allowed the listing on Cboe BZX of two new Volatility Shares funds - 3x Bitcoin ETF and 3x Ether ETF. They are designed for triple the daily movement of BTC and ETH and trade on the exchange like regular stocks.
XAU/USD rose to $4,227 on Friday but failed to consolidate above $4,200 and pulled back to $4,138. That is about a 1% decline for the day, despite a weak US labor market report.
September Tokyo inflation came in above forecast across all key measures. Core CPI accelerated to 2.7%, while the measure excluding food and energy reached 3.0%. The yen responded with strengthening, and USD/JPY dropped below 158.00.
USD/JPY rose to 158.44, and the yen lost about 0.5% after the release of the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions. The market saw no signal in the document for a rate hike as early as October, and the absence of currency interventions further increased pressure on the yen.
The USD/CHF pair rose to 0.8367 on the morning of October 1, a 16-month high, and has been rising for the seventh consecutive trading session. Pressure on the franc was intensified by weak investor expectations for the Swiss economy and the SNB's dovish stance.
After softer inflation data, the market sharply lowered expectations for a Fed rate hike in October. The probability of such a decision dropped to about 35-37%, whereas at the beginning of the week it exceeded 70%
US Core PCE for August slowed to 3.0% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.3%. After the release, the dollar and government bond yields declined, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in October decreased.
Robinhood has begun rolling out perpetual crypto futures trading for clients in the US. At launch, 8 assets are available, leverage up to 10x, settlement every 15 minutes, and a 0.01% fee per trade until the end of the year.
According to CME FedWatch, market participants estimate the probability of a Fed rate hike at the October 28 meeting at above 70%. The case is historically exceptional: in October before US elections, the Fed has never once raised rates.
EUR/USD on Monday touched 1.1350 - its lowest level since late July. The reason: ECB chief Christine Lagarde signaled that the regulator is in no hurry to raise rates, even though the market had bet on the opposite.
