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After a speech by Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, bets on a December hike jumped from 76.3% to 96.3% within a few hours. Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $74,080, while gold and stocks moved down along with it.
By 11:57 Moscow time on Tuesday, US WTI crude lost the $84 per barrel mark and dropped to lows not seen since late August. This is the second consecutive day of heavy selling, with Brent plunging below $90 over the same period.
Brent crude closed at $92.57 on Monday, November 9 - down $5.75 for the session. Over the past week it fell 16%, the worst weekly result since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
On Monday, November 9, the dollar was the weakest currency among the majors. DXY (the dollar index against a basket of currencies of the US's main trading partners) lost almost 0.4% and dipped to session lows below 102.00.
Brent crude is trading around $96.45 per barrel on Monday versus Friday's close of $98.32. Over the past week, the futures lost 16% - more than in any week since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
Microsoft abandons its agreement with Oracle to lease computing capacity for artificial intelligence. This concerns two of the top ten US companies by market capitalization, and both are part of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
On November 6, the selloff in tech and semiconductor stocks spread from Wall Street to Tokyo, Seoul and Shenzhen. Asian markets lost more than $1 trillion in value, and in South Korea trading had to be halted by the exchange's automation.
Production of the Cybertruck pickup at the Gigafactory Texas plant will stop by mid-2027, and the freed-up capacity will go to the driverless Cybercab taxi. From January to September 2026, 11,586 Cybertrucks were sold in the US, whereas Elon Musk had counted on 250,000 vehicles a year.
Tehran passed a proposal on the nuclear program to Washington through Qatar, but is willing to discuss it only after all seven of its demands are met. WTI (the American crude grade, the main price benchmark) responded with a 4% rise on the evening of November 5 and added about another 2% on the morning of November 6, to $90.15 per barrel.
The German statistics were released on Thursday at 10:00 Moscow time and came in weaker than consensus. EUR/USD rolled back from session highs to just below 1.1250, but the pair still ends the week in positive territory.
AXIOS reported that Washington is completing preparations for a possible resumption of large-scale military action against Iran and is already moving additional forces and assets into the region. A day earlier, the oil market was pricing in the exact opposite scenario.
In 24 hours, exchanges forcibly closed $974.8M in positions, and almost 60% of the amount was bets on a decline. BTC gained 4.64% and reached $80,480, ETH rose 6.84% to $2,418.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against six major currencies) is falling for the second day in a row and in Thursday's Asian session reached 101.20 - its lowest value in a month. Pressure comes from the results of the US midterm elections and a sharp drop in oil.
At 03:00 Moscow time on November 5, the Bank of Japan published the minutes of the September meeting: board members agreed that the rate should continue to be raised. The yen is strengthening for the second day in a row, USD/JPY slid to 158.25, EUR/JPY to 177.90.
XAU/USD gained more than 3.5% on the day - the strongest daily gain since mid-August - and in the Asian session on Thursday rose above $4100, to $4135 per ounce. The acceleration began after the Democrats took both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) headed toward the 101.00 area on Wednesday, November 4 - a five-week low - losing about 0.5% and falling below 101.50. On Thursday, two catalysts for movement hit the market at once: US labor market statistics and the Bank of England meeting.
On the evening of November 4, the oil decline deepened from 6% to -10% for the session. During the day the market was already falling after Chuck Schumer's words about ending the war with Iran, and a new downward impulse was given by the statement of the Democratic leader in the House of Representatives.
After the US midterm elections, risk assets were bought back at once: BTC added more than 4% and recovered from its plunge below $76,000, WTI oil fell below $93, and S&P 500 futures returned to the month's highs.
US Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said on the evening of November 4 that the war against Iran must end and that some Republicans have joined the Democrats on this issue. On that headline, oil fell by about 6%.
On November 4, the Chinese MFA reported that China is discussing with Tehran and Riyadh the opening of the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow outlet from the Persian Gulf through which seaborne oil exports from the region's largest producers pass.
The Eurozone consumer price report is due on November 4 - forecast at 4.0% year-on-year versus 3.8% a month earlier. The US session adds ADP employment data and the ISM services business activity index, while in the US Democrats have taken both the House and the Senate.
XAG/USD falls for the second day in a row and trades around $49.20 per troy ounce on Wednesday morning. On November 3, the metal dropped to $48.62 - a yearly low, while gold holds near $3,930.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, Iran's elite armed forces) stated on November 4 that four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting naval mines while passing along a route Iran calls prohibited. Two more vessels, according to the same account, were detained.
Iranian state television IRIB said on November 3 at 18:15 Moscow time that there had been no new progress in negotiations with the US, and that all reports of an almost-ready deal did not correspond to reality. Oil, which had previously lost about 4% on hopes of a settlement, returned almost to zero by the evening.
