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The US Department of Energy (EIA) reported a decline in commercial oil inventories of 1.892 million barrels for the week. The market expected a build of 0.1 million - meaning the data came in opposite to consensus.
Brent added $1.50 (1.32%) and returned to $115.59 per barrel, WTI rose $1.47 to $101.37. The trigger - a statement by Yemeni Houthis that they hit Ras Tanura, the kingdom's largest oil refinery at 550,000 barrels per day, with a ballistic missile. Riyadh has not confirmed the strike.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, the forecast is 4.00%, the same as last time. At 21:30 MSK the press conference of Fed Chair Warsh will begin, and it is precisely this that usually moves the market more than the number itself.
WTI crude (the U.S. benchmark grade, with futures traded on the NYMEX exchange) slipped on Monday from its peak level of $103.28 - a five-month high - to around $100.51. The market paused ahead of a week with three central bank meetings at once.
On October 20 the calendar is packed from night until late evening: at 04:15 Moscow time China announces its benchmark LPR rate, at 12:00 the ZEW indices for Germany and the Eurozone are released, at 15:15 - weekly ADP employment data for the US, and at 23:05 Netflix reports. The movement will be stretched across the whole day rather than gathered into a single candle.
On October 8, WTI oil rose to $90.87 and at one point approached $91.00, gaining about 3% in a day. The rise was supported by new attacks on facilities in Saudi Arabia, risks to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and a decline in US oil inventories.
IEA countries have decided to accelerate the release of oil and petroleum products from state reserves. If the entire previously promised but not yet realized volume reaches the market, additional supply could amount to up to 100 million barrels.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Fed publishes the minutes of the September 15-16 meeting. The market will look in the document for details of the debate within the committee on inflation, the labor market and the further rate trajectory ahead of the next meeting on October 27-28.
US crude WTI (the US benchmark grade) is trading around $93.05 in early Asian hours on Monday. The push came from US President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz - a key maritime route for oil exports from the Persian Gulf.
