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US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
The UK economy grew by 0.1% month-on-month in August, against a forecast of a 0.1% decline. After the data release, the pound strengthened, and GBP/USD rose by about 0.37%, to 1.3242.
Today at 15:30 MSK, the US consumer inflation report for September will be released. Headline CPI is expected at 3.6% year-on-year versus 3.4% in August, with gasoline prices potentially making the main contribution to the acceleration.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation is high. In her view, the Fed needs to continue tightening monetary policy, although the pace of rate hikes may be adjusted.
October 12 is a holiday in the US - Columbus Day. The stock market is open, but government bond trading is closed, so investors are temporarily left without one of the main benchmarks of recent weeks - Treasury yields.
On Wednesday, October 14 at 15:30 MSK, the US will publish September CPI. The market expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% year over year, while the monthly core reading, on the contrary, may slow to 0.2%.
Today at 17:00 MSK, the preliminary University of Michigan survey will be released. The market's main focus is inflation expectations: in September, the one-year-ahead figure rose from 4.0% to 4.6%, while five-year expectations climbed to 3.4%.
Initial jobless claims in the US came in at 197K versus a forecast of 200K. The market read the data as a signal of no mass layoffs: government bond yields rose, while US indices moved lower.
Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that inflation in the US remains too high and further rate hikes are still necessary. At the same time, new steps may come with pauses, rather than at every consecutive meeting.
Today, October 8, from 14:30 to 15:30 MSK, three important macro events come out in a row: the ECB protocols, a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and weekly US jobless claims. In one hour-long window, the euro, pound and dollar will be under reaction.
The minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that most participants consider another rate hike by the end of 2026 appropriate. At the same time, the market reaction was limited, as such a scenario had already been priced into the Fed's September projections.
The September New York Fed survey showed Americans' one-year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 3.9% versus 3.6% a month earlier. This is the highest reading since May 2023 and another argument for the Fed to remain cautious with rates.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Fed publishes the minutes of the September 15-16 meeting. The market will look in the document for details of the debate within the committee on inflation, the labor market and the further rate trajectory ahead of the next meeting on October 27-28.
Preliminary eurozone inflation for September accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year versus a forecast of 3.7% and 3.2% a month earlier. The core measure rose to 2.5%, which strengthens the arguments against a rapid easing of ECB policy.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lori Logan said the Fed rate needs to be raised by at least another 50 basis points so that monetary policy becomes moderately restrictive and helps bring inflation back to the 2% target.
After softer inflation data, the market sharply lowered expectations for a Fed rate hike in October. The probability of such a decision dropped to about 35-37%, whereas at the beginning of the week it exceeded 70%
US Core PCE for August slowed to 3.0% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.3%. After the release, the dollar and government bond yields declined, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in October decreased.
Today, September 30, at 15:30 MSK, the US releases Core PCE. The forecast is 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier. The indicator is important for assessing the further trajectory of the Fed rate.
In August, the number of job openings in the US declined to 7.079 million versus the expected 7.225-7.230 million. At the same time, hires and layoffs remained nearly unchanged.
