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Statistics Canada reported for August: the economy did not grow at all, and the preliminary estimate for September is already minus 0.1%. For the market, this is an argument in favor of a softer Bank of Canada policy and a reason to reassess the Canadian dollar.
The Canadian dollar is strengthening for the third session in a row: the USD/CAD pair headed toward 1.3968 on Friday and traded below 1.3960 - the lowest level in six weeks. Over three weeks, the pair has lost more than 2%.
September PCE (personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's key inflation gauge) accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year, while the US economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter - stronger than forecast. Buyers picked up the dollar, and the loonie gave up ground.
On Friday, the USD/CAD pair fell below the psychological level of 1.4000 and traded around 1.3975 - a one-month low. This is the seventh consecutive losing session for the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, and the second week of decline in a row.
Statistics Canada reported for September: Canadian industry selling prices rose 2.0% from August versus 1.3% a month earlier. The data were released on October 22 at 15:33 Moscow time - six days before the Bank of Canada meeting.
On Wednesday, October 14 at 15:30 MSK, the US will publish September CPI. The market expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% year over year, while the monthly core reading, on the contrary, may slow to 0.2%.
