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Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks today, November 6, at 19:00 MSK. Japan's rate is currently 1.25% - the highest since April 1995, and Ueda is expected to hint whether the next move will come on December 18.
The Bank of Japan kept its short-term rate at 1.25% with an 8-1 vote and noticeably tightened its language: core inflation hit the 2% target for the first time since 2013. The yen is strengthening, USD/JPY falls for the third day in a row.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ, the country's central bank) will announce its rate decision on Friday, October 30. Almost no one expects a change - the rate is expected to stay at 1.25%. All the interest lies elsewhere: what the regulator will say about December, where the market sees a hike with a probability of about 80%.
On Monday, October 26, the dollar strengthened against major currencies ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The yen is the weakest in the basket, the pound slipped from its recent peak of 1.3419 to levels below 1.3350.
On Friday morning, three signals at once from the Bank of Japan in favor of a further rate hike supported the yen, and the USD/JPY pair slid to 157.85. The regulator's next meeting is on October 29-30.
At the Bank of Japan, they are leaning toward leaving the rate unchanged at the October 30 meeting. Against this backdrop, the probability of an October hike has fallen to about 10%, and USD/JPY is holding near 158.50, close to monthly highs.
