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DXY (dollar index, the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies) reached 103.048 during the Asian session on Thursday - for the first time since early April 2025. In the previous session it gained 0.7% after US inflation came in above forecast.
On the morning of November 11, US index futures reversed upward: the market received a signal of de-escalation around Iran and strong earnings in the artificial intelligence sector. A day earlier, the same indices closed lower after inflation data.
On Tuesday, gold gave back almost all of the previous day's gains - traders took profits, and a Fed official's comments about a possible rate hike in December added pressure.
After a speech by Christopher Waller, a member of the Fed Board of Governors, bets on a December hike jumped from 76.3% to 96.3% within a few hours. Bitcoin fell 1.3% to $74,080, while gold and stocks moved down along with it.
By 11:57 Moscow time on Tuesday, US WTI crude lost the $84 per barrel mark and dropped to lows not seen since late August. This is the second consecutive day of heavy selling, with Brent plunging below $90 over the same period.
Brent crude closed at $92.57 on Monday, November 9 - down $5.75 for the session. Over the past week it fell 16%, the worst weekly result since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
On Monday, November 9, the dollar was the weakest currency among the majors. DXY (the dollar index against a basket of currencies of the US's main trading partners) lost almost 0.4% and dipped to session lows below 102.00.
Brent crude is trading around $96.45 per barrel on Monday versus Friday's close of $98.32. Over the past week, the futures lost 16% - more than in any week since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
Senator Richard Blumenthal, chairman of the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations (PSI), sent letters to Binance, Tether, World Liberty Financial, Fight Fight Fight LLC and other companies. Responses are due by January 4, 2027.
MEXC exchange explained the halt as "scheduled maintenance" a day after the US Treasury order that cuts it off from the American financial system. According to the Cexorer tracker, as of November 7, six out of 18 tracked networks for USDT withdrawal (a stablecoin with an exchange rate pegged to the dollar) were working.
On November 6, FinCEN (the US Treasury's financial crimes unit) banned American banks from making any transfers to or from the MEXC Global crypto exchange. The exchange was named a "primary source of money laundering threat," with claims totaling $16 billion in transactions over five years.
Tehran passed a proposal on the nuclear program to Washington through Qatar, but is willing to discuss it only after all seven of its demands are met. WTI (the American crude grade, the main price benchmark) responded with a 4% rise on the evening of November 5 and added about another 2% on the morning of November 6, to $90.15 per barrel.
AXIOS reported that Washington is completing preparations for a possible resumption of large-scale military action against Iran and is already moving additional forces and assets into the region. A day earlier, the oil market was pricing in the exact opposite scenario.
At 03:00 Moscow time on November 5, the Bank of Japan published the minutes of the September meeting: board members agreed that the rate should continue to be raised. The yen is strengthening for the second day in a row, USD/JPY slid to 158.25, EUR/JPY to 177.90.
XAU/USD gained more than 3.5% on the day - the strongest daily gain since mid-August - and in the Asian session on Thursday rose above $4100, to $4135 per ounce. The acceleration began after the Democrats took both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the US midterm elections.
On the evening of November 4, the oil decline deepened from 6% to -10% for the session. During the day the market was already falling after Chuck Schumer's words about ending the war with Iran, and a new downward impulse was given by the statement of the Democratic leader in the House of Representatives.
After the US midterm elections, risk assets were bought back at once: BTC added more than 4% and recovered from its plunge below $76,000, WTI oil fell below $93, and S&P 500 futures returned to the month's highs.
US Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said on the evening of November 4 that the war against Iran must end and that some Republicans have joined the Democrats on this issue. On that headline, oil fell by about 6%.
In the US midterm elections, Democrats won both the Senate and the House of Representatives. US index futures fell overnight but by the European session on November 4 had bought back the dip and turned positive.
On November 4, the Chinese MFA reported that China is discussing with Tehran and Riyadh the opening of the Strait of Hormuz - the narrow outlet from the Persian Gulf through which seaborne oil exports from the region's largest producers pass.
The Eurozone consumer price report is due on November 4 - forecast at 4.0% year-on-year versus 3.8% a month earlier. The US session adds ADP employment data and the ISM services business activity index, while in the US Democrats have taken both the House and the Senate.
XAG/USD falls for the second day in a row and trades around $49.20 per troy ounce on Wednesday morning. On November 3, the metal dropped to $48.62 - a yearly low, while gold holds near $3,930.
On the morning of November 4, gold traded around $3,930 per ounce, recovering from a drop to lows last seen in September 2025. The reason is the collapse of the dollar after the first results of the midterm congressional elections held on November 3.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC, Iran's elite armed forces) stated on November 4 that four oil tankers were destroyed after hitting naval mines while passing along a route Iran calls prohibited. Two more vessels, according to the same account, were detained.
