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According to a CoinShares report, crypto asset investment products (exchange-traded funds and trusts through which institutions buy crypto like a stock) lost $434 million in net outflows in the week to October 16. The sell-off accelerated after the October 14 inflation data.
On October 16 at 15:30 MSK, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (US Bureau of Labor Statistics) published the import price index for September: +1.1% versus August against the expected +0.8%. In annual terms, growth accelerated to 8.1% from 7.0% a month earlier.
On October 15 at 15:30 Moscow time, the US released the producer price index for September (PPI - the prices at which factories and suppliers sell goods, that is, inflation at the input to the economy). The monthly increase was +1.3%: more than double expectations and triple August's +0.4%.
Gold declined for three consecutive days after higher-than-expected US inflation was released and dropped to $4,065 per ounce. On the morning of October 15, XAU/USD recovered part of the decline and returned above $4,150 amid a pullback in the dollar and bond yields.
The US stock market fell sharply after higher inflation in the US. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9%, the S&P 500 - 1.1%, and the sell-off in AI- and chip-related stocks then spread to Asia, where the KOSPI plunged 8%.
US September CPI came in above expectations: 3.7% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.6%, while core inflation accelerated to 2.6%. The market quickly raised the probability of another Fed move, and Bitcoin fell below $83,000 in five minutes.
On October 12, gold lost 1.49% and dropped from $4,217 to $4,163 per ounce. Pressure came from rising oil, a stronger dollar, and high US bond yields.
Bitcoin fell from $84,200 to $81,382 over the day, losing about 2.8%, while total liquidations on the crypto market reached $771 million. By the morning of October 13, BTC had recovered above $83,000.
Gold is trading around $4,215 on Monday and holds above $4,200. The metal is supported by the largest inflows into gold ETFs in four years, central bank buying and a weaker dollar.
On Wednesday, October 14 at 15:30 MSK, the US will publish September CPI. The market expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% year over year, while the monthly core reading, on the contrary, may slow to 0.2%.
The September New York Fed survey showed Americans' one-year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 3.9% versus 3.6% a month earlier. This is the highest reading since May 2023 and another argument for the Fed to remain cautious with rates.
After softer inflation data, the market sharply lowered expectations for a Fed rate hike in October. The probability of such a decision dropped to about 35-37%, whereas at the beginning of the week it exceeded 70%
US Core PCE for August slowed to 3.0% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.3%. After the release, the dollar and government bond yields declined, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in October decreased.
Today, September 30, at 15:30 MSK, the US releases Core PCE. The forecast is 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier. The indicator is important for assessing the further trajectory of the Fed rate.
