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The US Department of Labor reported on Thursday at 16:30 Moscow time: in the week to October 31, initial jobless claims came in at 189K versus a forecast of 196K. Layoffs in the American economy are lower than expected - and this is a day before the main employment report.
The DXY dollar index fell to 101.40 (-0.44% for the day) after the Democrats took both chambers of Congress. Yet the yen failed to capitalize on this: USD/JPY holds near 158.32, having lost just 0.24%.
On October 29, the euro fell to 1.1104 - its weakest level since May 2025. The reason is twofold: the ECB left rates unchanged, while US inflation accelerated, and the market began seriously expecting not a cut but a Fed rate hike in December.
From October 28 to 30, four central banks issue rate decisions, and on the 29th US GDP and PCE come out at the same time. The market has already priced in rates staying unchanged, so it will be the wording, not the numbers themselves, that moves the instruments.
The US Department of Labor reported: for the week ending October 17, initial jobless claims totaled 194K versus the expected 200K. This is one of the lowest levels in recent months, and the dollar immediately recovered part of its recent decline.
US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
Initial jobless claims in the US came in at 197K versus a forecast of 200K. The market read the data as a signal of no mass layoffs: government bond yields rose, while US indices moved lower.
Today, October 8, from 14:30 to 15:30 MSK, three important macro events come out in a row: the ECB protocols, a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and weekly US jobless claims. In one hour-long window, the euro, pound and dollar will be under reaction.
