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The Office for National Statistics (UK's national statistics service) publishes its preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP. Consensus is growth of 0.7% quarter-on-quarter versus 0.5% in the second quarter, with an annual rate of 1.9% versus 1.4%. GBP/USD approaches the release around 1.3275 - the lowest since mid-October.
DXY (dollar index, the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of currencies) reached 103.048 during the Asian session on Thursday - for the first time since early April 2025. In the previous session it gained 0.7% after US inflation came in above forecast.
Clare Lombardelli, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, told the Guardian that she does not rule out a rate hike at the December meeting. For a market accustomed to expecting cuts from the British central bank, this is a reversal in tone.
On Tuesday, the US consumer price report for October is released. The FactSet consensus is plus 0.2% for the month versus 0.6% in September, when annual price growth accelerated to 3.7%, the highest since May.
The October US employment report (NFP) was released on November 6 and showed 165K new jobs against a forecast of 65K. The pound lost about 0.6% against the dollar and fell below the 1.3400 level.
The rate was raised by 25 basis points, from 3.75% to 4%, exactly as the market expected. In the minutes, the Bank of England stated directly: further increases will most likely be needed, because inflation could approach 5% by mid-2027.
The main survey on the US services sector for October was released on November 4 at 18:00 MSK and came in weaker than both the forecast and September: 54.5 versus the expected 54.8 and 54.9 a month earlier. Values above 50 indicate sector growth, so services are expanding, but more slowly.
Today ADP Research Institute publishes its report on private sector employment in the US for October. The consensus is +69 thousand jobs after +90 thousand in September. This is the first labor market figure this week, followed by NFP on Friday.
The final eurozone data for October came in weaker than September's: the composite business activity index dropped to 51.7 versus 53.1 a month earlier. The release took place on November 4 at around 12:01 Moscow time.
On Monday, November 2, spot gold is trading around $3,906.39 per ounce - up $30.55 (+0.79%) from Friday's close of $3,875.84. The rebound follows Friday's plunge of nearly 3.5% to a one-year low. Reuters recorded $3,900.05 (+0.6%) at the start of the Asian session.
Statistics Canada reported for August: the economy did not grow at all, and the preliminary estimate for September is already minus 0.1%. For the market, this is an argument in favor of a softer Bank of Canada policy and a reason to reassess the Canadian dollar.
On Friday the euro broke below the March 2025 levels against the British pound: the EUR/GBP pair touched 0.8336, a 19-month low. Strong eurozone economic data failed to convince the market, while the pound is rising on expectations that the Bank of England will raise rates as early as next week.
At 13:00 Moscow time on October 30, the preliminary estimate of Eurozone GDP for the third quarter of 2026 was released. The bloc's economy grew 0.4% quarter-on-quarter against a forecast of +0.2% - that is, twice as strong as the market expected.
By 11:07 Moscow time on October 30, the Nasdaq 100 futures were losing more than 2% and trading around 28,960 points. The reason: weak guidance from three of the largest technology companies at once and growing concerns over their spending on artificial intelligence.
The second-largest economy in the eurozone contracted: the preliminary GDP estimate (total volume of goods and services produced) for July-September showed -0.1% quarter-on-quarter against a consensus of +0.1%. The data was released on October 30 at 09:30 Moscow time.
On October 29, XAU/USD fell more than 1% - from the day's high of $4,069 to $4,019. Strong US economic data interrupted gold's three-day winning streak and reinforced the market's bet that the Fed will raise rates in December.
September PCE (personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's key inflation gauge) accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year, while the US economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter - stronger than forecast. Buyers picked up the dollar, and the loonie gave up ground.
On October 29, the euro fell to 1.1104 - its weakest level since May 2025. The reason is twofold: the ECB left rates unchanged, while US inflation accelerated, and the market began seriously expecting not a cut but a Fed rate hike in December.
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA, the government agency that calculates GDP) published its first estimate of Q3 growth on October 29 at 15:30 Moscow time - 3.4% annualized versus the expected 3.2%. The inflation component of the same report came in noticeably softer than forecast.
Gold (XAU/USD) slipped to $4,036 on Thursday, losing 0.76% for the day and ending a three-day winning streak. The reason is the outcome of the Fed meeting: the rate was left untouched, but the option of a hike in December remained on the table, and key data on this issue is released today.
Brent futures (the North Sea benchmark crude) fell about 1% on Thursday to $114.20 a barrel, while WTI (the U.S. benchmark) dropped 1.4% to $101.40. The market is simultaneously pricing in two scenarios from Washington: an offer of talks to Iran and preparations for a strike after the November 3 election.
A day of double macro statistics: first the US data block at 15:30, then the ECB rate decision at 16:15 and the press conference at 16:45. In the evening, reports from Amazon, Intel and Coinbase are added.
The US publishes preliminary data on quarterly economic growth. The consensus expects more than a twofold acceleration - from 1.5% to 3.2% on an annualized basis. A high-importance event: the market reassembles its Fed rate expectations based on it.
The European Central Bank will announce its rate decision today at 16:15 MSK, and at 16:45 MSK the press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde will begin. The euro approaches the event at 1.1110 - this is the lowest level of the EUR/USD pair since May 2025.
