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Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on Friday, November 13, on Ethereum CNBC that if data worsen, the Fed will act more aggressively on rates. The dollar thereby moved to a 19-month peak, gold lost more than 4% over the week.
On US congressional voting day, US index futures diverged: Dow Jones -0.5%, S&P 500 -0.15%, Nasdaq 100 flat. The market holds positions ahead of the first vote count results.
On November 2, US stocks rebounded sharply after recent sell-offs. There are two reasons: anticipation of a peace deal on Iran and public statements by the White House's chief economic adviser that there is no crisis in the artificial intelligence sector.
Istat (Italy's national statistics agency) published its preliminary October inflation estimate on October 30 at 13:01 MSK: +5.4% year-on-year versus the expected +4.6% and +4.2% a month earlier. The miss versus consensus was almost a full percentage point - for a eurozone country, that is a lot.
On October 29, the euro fell to 1.1104 - its weakest level since May 2025. The reason is twofold: the ECB left rates unchanged, while US inflation accelerated, and the market began seriously expecting not a cut but a Fed rate hike in December.
The European Central Bank on 29 October at 16:15 MSK kept its key rate at 2.65% - exactly as the market expected and as at the previous meeting. No changes to any of the three rates.
The euro is weakening against all major currencies due to the state of France's public finances and a sell-off in its bond market. The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1145 and is falling for a fifth session in a row - on the eve of back-to-back Fed and ECB decisions.
Statistics Canada reported for September: Canadian industry selling prices rose 2.0% from August versus 1.3% a month earlier. The data were released on October 22 at 15:33 Moscow time - six days before the Bank of Canada meeting.
On the evening of October 16 at around 21:49 Moscow time, the Brent crude oil futures were trading above $110 per barrel. The market has not seen this level since May 2026
Today at 17:00 MSK, the preliminary University of Michigan survey will be released. The market's main focus is inflation expectations: in September, the one-year-ahead figure rose from 4.0% to 4.6%, while five-year expectations climbed to 3.4%.
Bitcoin recovered to $82,000 after Donald Trump's statement that the US will not strike Iran until November 3. Amid easing geopolitical risks, oil reversed downward, and the crypto market partially recouped the overnight decline.
Gold is recovering for the second day in a row after falling to $4,066, a two-month low. By the morning of October 9, XAU/USD had risen to the $4,140-4,150 area, adding about 2% from the weekly low.
Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that inflation in the US remains too high and further rate hikes are still necessary. At the same time, new steps may come with pauses, rather than at every consecutive meeting.
The DXY dollar index rose to 102.35, approaching the yearly high of 102.50. The main support for the dollar comes from US Treasury yields, which are near more than two-decade highs.
On October 7, Bitcoin broke through $83,000 and dropped to $82,734 on Bitstamp, updating its October low. Pressure came from external markets: Brent rose above $102, and US government bond yields reached 24-year highs.
Preliminary eurozone inflation for September accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year versus a forecast of 3.7% and 3.2% a month earlier. The core measure rose to 2.5%, which strengthens the arguments against a rapid easing of ECB policy.
September Tokyo inflation came in above forecast across all key measures. Core CPI accelerated to 2.7%, while the measure excluding food and energy reached 3.0%. The yen responded with strengthening, and USD/JPY dropped below 158.00.
US President Donald Trump said that in the absence of an acceptable agreement, Washington may resume or intensify strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. The conflict has been ongoing for about seven months, and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the key risks for the oil market.
Gold first rose to $4,220 after soft US inflation data, but then completely erased its gains and fell to $4,139-4,150. Pressure was intensified by rising US Treasury yields, a strong dollar and more hawkish rate expectations
US Core PCE for August slowed to 3.0% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.3%. After the release, the dollar and government bond yields declined, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in October decreased.
Today, September 30, at 15:30 MSK, the US releases Core PCE. The forecast is 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier. The indicator is important for assessing the further trajectory of the Fed rate.
EUR/USD on Monday touched 1.1350 - its lowest level since late July. The reason: ECB chief Christine Lagarde signaled that the regulator is in no hurry to raise rates, even though the market had bet on the opposite.
