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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said on October 28 at 21:36 MSK that the regulator is changing the FOMC meeting schedule (the Fed committee that sets the US key rate) starting next autumn. The total number of meetings will remain the same - 8 per year - but not every one of them will end with a rate decision.
The US Department of Energy (EIA) reported a decline in commercial oil inventories of 1.892 million barrels for the week. The market expected a build of 0.1 million - meaning the data came in opposite to consensus.
Three large holders (known as whales) transferred a total of 6,168 BTC to Coinbase Prime - the division of the Coinbase exchange for institutional clients - overnight, about $498.5 million. This is happening with Bitcoin priced around $80,800, that is, at the month's lows.
Today at 15:30 MSK UK Finance Minister John Healey presents his first annual budget, and at 21:00 MSK the Fed will announce its rate. GBP/USD is already at 1.3300 - the lowest since October 19.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, the forecast is 4.00%, the same as last time. At 21:30 MSK the press conference of Fed Chair Warsh will begin, and it is precisely this that usually moves the market more than the number itself.
From October 19 to 23, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US (exchange-traded funds through which Bitcoin is bought like an ordinary stock) attracted $304.73 million, although $635.49 million was withdrawn from them on Wednesday alone. Ethereum funds closed the week with an outflow of $220.6 million.
On Friday, October 23, at the start of the US session, BTC plunged to $80,988 - the low of the day. At the same time, Brent crude jumped about 3% to $116 per barrel, for the first time since March 19, and US stocks closed the week in the red.
According to calculations by analytics firm K33, BTC's 28-day realized volatility (a measure of the actual magnitude of price fluctuations over a period) has dropped to 1.2% - nearly the lowest value for all of 2026. The market has frozen right before the Fed meeting and the US elections.
Today at 09:00 Moscow time, the UK reports its September consumer price index. Consensus is +3.4% year-on-year vs 3.1% in August. If the figure is confirmed, this will be the third consecutive month of acceleration.
BTC is trading around $82,538, but the range of its fluctuations has fallen to one of the lowest values in two and a half years. The two previous such compressions ended with a 30-35% move - in opposite directions.
On Tuesday and Wednesday after the US market close, quarterly reports from Tesla, Meta, Netflix and SpaceX are released. Nasdaq values just the first three at a combined $3.6 trillion - the reaction in their shares drags the entire tech sector along with it.
Since the start of October, investors have pulled more than $1 billion from US spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds through which Bitcoin and Ethereum are bought like an ordinary stock). BTC is trading at $81,266 and is 35.54% below its record high of $126,080.
On October 16, the calendar has four reasons for movement at once: inflation in the European Union, US industrial statistics, the fifth day of the annual IMF and World Bank meeting with central bank heads participating, and a morning speech by Fed Chair Warsh.
On October 15 at about 16:54 MSK, BTC traded below $80,000 - a round level around which the bulk of the market's stop orders and leveraged positions are concentrated.
On October 15 at 15:30 Moscow time, the US released the producer price index for September (PPI - the prices at which factories and suppliers sell goods, that is, inflation at the input to the economy). The monthly increase was +1.3%: more than double expectations and triple August's +0.4%.
US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
The US stock market fell sharply after higher inflation in the US. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9%, the S&P 500 - 1.1%, and the sell-off in AI- and chip-related stocks then spread to Asia, where the KOSPI plunged 8%.
Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the ECB Governing Council, said that at the next meeting the regulator will most likely raise the rate. For the market, this is an important signal, since expectations of a tighter policy directly affect the euro and asset yields in the eurozone.
WTI crude oil is rising for the fifth consecutive session and has climbed above $94 per barrel after new attacks in Saudi Arabia. The market is again pricing in heightened risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East, despite rising OPEC+ production.
In the week through October 9, investors withdrew about $1.246 billion from US spot ETFs on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. A week earlier, these same products recorded net capital inflows.
Bitcoin recovered to $82,000 after Donald Trump's statement that the US will not strike Iran until November 3. Amid easing geopolitical risks, oil reversed downward, and the crypto market partially recouped the overnight decline.
Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that inflation in the US remains too high and further rate hikes are still necessary. At the same time, new steps may come with pauses, rather than at every consecutive meeting.
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter versus expected 456,896. The result came in about 6.5% above the forecast, but at the same time 2% lower than a year earlier.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lori Logan said the Fed rate needs to be raised by at least another 50 basis points so that monetary policy becomes moderately restrictive and helps bring inflation back to the 2% target.
