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From October 19 to 23, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US (exchange-traded funds through which Bitcoin is bought like an ordinary stock) attracted $304.73 million, although $635.49 million was withdrawn from them on Wednesday alone. Ethereum funds closed the week with an outflow of $220.6 million.
On Friday, October 23, at the start of the US session, BTC plunged to $80,988 - the low of the day. At the same time, Brent crude jumped about 3% to $116 per barrel, for the first time since March 19, and US stocks closed the week in the red.
According to calculations by analytics firm K33, BTC's 28-day realized volatility (a measure of the actual magnitude of price fluctuations over a period) has dropped to 1.2% - nearly the lowest value for all of 2026. The market has frozen right before the Fed meeting and the US elections.
Today at 09:00 Moscow time, the UK reports its September consumer price index. Consensus is +3.4% year-on-year vs 3.1% in August. If the figure is confirmed, this will be the third consecutive month of acceleration.
BTC is trading around $82,538, but the range of its fluctuations has fallen to one of the lowest values in two and a half years. The two previous such compressions ended with a 30-35% move - in opposite directions.
On Tuesday and Wednesday after the US market close, quarterly reports from Tesla, Meta, Netflix and SpaceX are released. Nasdaq values just the first three at a combined $3.6 trillion - the reaction in their shares drags the entire tech sector along with it.
Since the start of October, investors have pulled more than $1 billion from US spot ETFs (exchange-traded funds through which Bitcoin and Ethereum are bought like an ordinary stock). BTC is trading at $81,266 and is 35.54% below its record high of $126,080.
On October 16, the calendar has four reasons for movement at once: inflation in the European Union, US industrial statistics, the fifth day of the annual IMF and World Bank meeting with central bank heads participating, and a morning speech by Fed Chair Warsh.
On October 15 at about 16:54 MSK, BTC traded below $80,000 - a round level around which the bulk of the market's stop orders and leveraged positions are concentrated.
On October 15 at 15:30 Moscow time, the US released the producer price index for September (PPI - the prices at which factories and suppliers sell goods, that is, inflation at the input to the economy). The monthly increase was +1.3%: more than double expectations and triple August's +0.4%.
US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
The US stock market fell sharply after higher inflation in the US. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9%, the S&P 500 - 1.1%, and the sell-off in AI- and chip-related stocks then spread to Asia, where the KOSPI plunged 8%.
Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the ECB Governing Council, said that at the next meeting the regulator will most likely raise the rate. For the market, this is an important signal, since expectations of a tighter policy directly affect the euro and asset yields in the eurozone.
WTI crude oil is rising for the fifth consecutive session and has climbed above $94 per barrel after new attacks in Saudi Arabia. The market is again pricing in heightened risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East, despite rising OPEC+ production.
Today at 15:30 MSK, the US consumer inflation report for September will be released. Headline CPI is expected at 3.6% year-on-year versus 3.4% in August, with gasoline prices potentially making the main contribution to the acceleration.
In the week through October 9, investors withdrew about $1.246 billion from US spot ETFs on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. A week earlier, these same products recorded net capital inflows.
Bitcoin recovered to $82,000 after Donald Trump's statement that the US will not strike Iran until November 3. Amid easing geopolitical risks, oil reversed downward, and the crypto market partially recouped the overnight decline.
Fed Board of Governors member Christopher Waller said that inflation in the US remains too high and further rate hikes are still necessary. At the same time, new steps may come with pauses, rather than at every consecutive meeting.
On October 2, the SEC allowed the listing on Cboe BZX of two new Volatility Shares funds - 3x Bitcoin ETF and 3x Ether ETF. They are designed for triple the daily movement of BTC and ETH and trade on the exchange like regular stocks.
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter versus expected 456,896. The result came in about 6.5% above the forecast, but at the same time 2% lower than a year earlier.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lori Logan said the Fed rate needs to be raised by at least another 50 basis points so that monetary policy becomes moderately restrictive and helps bring inflation back to the 2% target.
On the morning of October 2, Bitcoin rose above $86,000 after nearly a week of consolidation. Large sell orders around $85,000 that had been holding back growth were removed, and inflows into spot BTC ETFs intensified again.
Gold first rose to $4,220 after soft US inflation data, but then completely erased its gains and fell to $4,139-4,150. Pressure was intensified by rising US Treasury yields, a strong dollar and more hawkish rate expectations
Bitcoin pulled back from an eight-month high of $87,381 to $83,900. Over the past day, the market faced $545 million in liquidations, most of which were long positions
