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On the evening of October 28, from 21:52 to 22:05 Moscow time, Warsh answered questions on Fed policy. Main statement: he does not believe in preliminary signals to the market about future regulator decisions.
On the evening of October 28, Oracle (an American corporation, one of the largest providers of cloud infrastructure and enterprise software) confirmed its financial targets for fiscal 2027. ORCL shares responded with a gain of about 10%.
The decision was made by a vote of 10 to 2: Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack insisted on an immediate 0.25 percentage point increase. Six weeks earlier, the committee had made the same decision unanimously.
Galaxy Research analyzed the filings of major managers: nine hedge funds and banks cut their positions in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs by 68,000 BTC - about $5.4 billion. The reason is not a bet against the market, but that the arbitrage scheme has almost stopped generating income.
The US Department of Energy (EIA) reported a decline in commercial oil inventories of 1.892 million barrels for the week. The market expected a build of 0.1 million - meaning the data came in opposite to consensus.
Kraken (one of the oldest US crypto exchanges) is moving 176 trading pairs to synthetic markets. All orders placed on these pairs will be canceled, and after the migration orders will have to be placed again - they will not be transferred automatically.
Prop firm Goat Funded Trader has launched a separate project, Goat Funded Predictions. There, traders trade not currency pairs but contracts on the outcome of events, and the platform itself runs on Kalshi and calls itself the first prop firm on prediction markets.
On 28 October, UK Chancellor Healey presented the annual budget to Parliament. The OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent state body that produces the forecasts underpinning the budget) downgraded its economic growth estimates, and the free fiscal buffer shrank from £23.6bn in March to £15bn.
On October 28 at 16:45 MSK, the Bank of Canada raised its key rate from 2.25% to 2.5% - exactly what the market expected. The main surprise was not the move itself, but the signal: the regulator allowed that another hike may be needed.
The South Korean KOSPI index gained 6.6% on Wednesday, October 28, following a report from memory chip maker SK Hynix: operating profit grew sevenfold, and the company announced it would return another $45 billion to shareholders.
Crypto.com, together with the OG.com exchange, has launched crypto perpetual futures for qualified US traders: 24/7 trading, long and short positions, up to 5x leverage, and oversight by the CFTC, the US futures market regulator.
The pair recovered from a drop to a monthly low around 156.00 and returned almost to 158.00 in a V-shaped move - the third consecutive rising session. The dollar is being pulled up ahead of the Fed decision, which will be released today at 21:00 Moscow time.
Today the Fed announces its rate decision at 21:00 MSK, and after the US session closes Microsoft and Alphabet report - the first two of the companies whose AI infrastructure spending drives Nvidia's revenue. Heading into the event, the Nasdaq Composite stood at 26,477.81 points.
Today at 21:00 MSK the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision, the forecast is 4.00%, the same as last time. At 21:30 MSK the press conference of Fed Chair Warsh will begin, and it is precisely this that usually moves the market more than the number itself.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (the country's central bank) unexpectedly did not raise the key rate overnight on October 28, although almost everyone expected it to: the decision was made by a 4-3 vote. The New Zealand dollar moved lower in the first minutes after the publication.
On Tuesday XAU/USD hit an intraday low of $3,989, reversed and gained more than 1%, rising to $4,061. The rally occurred despite a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields.
The euro is weakening against all major currencies due to the state of France's public finances and a sell-off in its bond market. The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1145 and is falling for a fifth session in a row - on the eve of back-to-back Fed and ECB decisions.
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for October came in at 91.7 versus a forecast of 81.2 and the September reading of 81.9. The miss versus consensus is more than 10 points, one of the largest surprises for this indicator in recent times.
XAU/USD is fluctuating around $4,000 on Tuesday and has already dipped below it, despite easing US rate expectations. Trading is taking place near $4,012, slightly above last week's three-month low of $3,975.
On Monday, October 26, the dollar strengthened against major currencies ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The yen is the weakest in the basket, the pound slipped from its recent peak of 1.3419 to levels below 1.3350.
From October 28 to 30, four central banks issue rate decisions, and on the 29th US GDP and PCE come out at the same time. The market has already priced in rates staying unchanged, so it will be the wording, not the numbers themselves, that moves the instruments.
By 05:50 Moscow time on Monday, Brent is at $114.60 per barrel versus Friday's close of $116.72 - the highest since April. The market has begun giving back part of the war premium, but oil is still twice as expensive as in February.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,009.87 per ounce by 06:42 Moscow time on Monday. This is a rebound after the worst week since June: over the week the metal lost 4% and closed below the round $4,000 mark for the first time since mid-July.
Microsoft publishes first-quarter fiscal 2027 results on Wednesday, October 28, after the US market close - the same evening as the Fed decision and Alphabet's report. For Nasdaq, this is a concentrated test of whether AI infrastructure investments are paying off.
