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On November 2, US stocks rebounded sharply after recent sell-offs. There are two reasons: anticipation of a peace deal on Iran and public statements by the White House's chief economic adviser that there is no crisis in the artificial intelligence sector.
On Tuesday, November 3, the US holds midterm elections - the re-election of Congress in the middle of the presidential term. Democrats need to win back just three seats in the House of Representatives to take it over and stall Donald Trump's agenda in the final two years of his term.
Gold closed October with a 6.87% decline, and on Friday it hit a new yearly low of $3,870. On Monday the metal is being bought back: XAU/USD around $3,900, up 0.64% for the day, with an intraday high of $3,919. The metal is still about 30% below the all-time peak of $5,600 set in January.
Friday's session was the worst for the Nasdaq since the start of June: the index lost 2.86%, the S&P 500 - 1.82%. This week the market goes through US elections, earnings reports from major technology companies and employment data all at once.
On Monday, November 2, spot gold is trading around $3,906.39 per ounce - up $30.55 (+0.79%) from Friday's close of $3,875.84. The rebound follows Friday's plunge of nearly 3.5% to a one-year low. Reuters recorded $3,900.05 (+0.6%) at the start of the Asian session.
Brent crude (the benchmark grade used to price oil in Europe and Asia) fell to $110.06, losing $3.37 in a day. The reason is not OPEC+, which on Sunday left December quotas unchanged, but Tehran's statement that the Strait of Hormuz could be opened in two days.
After the Binance hack, US spot Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds through which Bitcoin is bought like a regular stock) showed an outflow of $643.3M on Friday, October 31 - the largest in four months.
Bitcoin gained about 1% to ~$78,600 in Monday morning hours and is closing its third straight day of gains - even as a week ago Binance disclosed a $6.3B theft, the largest in crypto exchange history.
On Friday, October 30, the Nasdaq Composite (the index of American technology stocks) closed at 25,437.00, down 747.73 points, or 2.86%. This is the index's worst day since June 5, and it lost more than 5% over the course of October.
On Friday, October 30, spot gold closed around $3,875 per ounce: down 3.62% for the session and down 3.74% for the week. From the August level of roughly $4,700, the metal is now 18% lower.
From November 2 to 6, the market will get four reasons to move at once: the US midterm congressional elections, decisions from four central banks and the US employment report on Friday. The dollar enters this week after two weeks of decline and, for the first time in a long while, at its 200-week moving average.
On October 29, XAU/USD fell more than 1% - from the day's high of $4,069 to $4,019. Strong US economic data interrupted gold's three-day winning streak and reinforced the market's bet that the Fed will raise rates in December.
Bitcoin failed to hold above $81,687 and dropped to $80,297 on the Bitstamp exchange, down about 0.3% over the day. Buyers did not break through the 50-day moving average ahead of the Fed decision and tech earnings reports.
Qatari mediators handed Tehran a new draft agreement with the US on Sunday, October 25. Iran is studying the document and has promised an answer by the end of the week — and the market is already pricing in every headline on the subject, although there is no talk of the deal itself yet.
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision midday, the Fed in the evening. USD/CAD is rising for a second day and has already bounced from 1.3970-1.3965, the low since September 16, climbing above 1.4000 - a new weekly high.
Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Tuesday, October 27, that the government is ready for decisive action in the currency market. This is a direct hint at intervention - selling dollars from reserves to support the yen.
WTI crude (the U.S. benchmark grade, with futures traded on the NYMEX exchange) slipped on Monday from its peak level of $103.28 - a five-month high - to around $100.51. The market paused ahead of a week with three central bank meetings at once.
By 05:50 Moscow time on Monday, Brent is at $114.60 per barrel versus Friday's close of $116.72 - the highest since April. The market has begun giving back part of the war premium, but oil is still twice as expensive as in February.
On October 28 at 21:00 Moscow time, the Fed will announce its rate decision, and the market expects almost no move: the probability of a hike fell from 73% to 9.4%. The main focus will be the wording of the statement and the press conference at 21:30 Moscow time.
On Saturday, Bitcoin fell below $80,000 for the first time since October 15 and in four hours wiped out $404.15M in long positions (bets on price increases) — that's 93% of the total $436.44M in liquidations. Over 24 hours, the market forcibly closed $815.26M across 201,012 traders.
On Saturday, October 24, BTC lost 2.2% in a day and dropped to $79,700 - its weakest level in more than a month. The reason is not market-related: Washington is urgently evacuating embassy and military base personnel from the region.
On Friday, October 23, at the start of the US session, BTC plunged to $80,988 - the low of the day. At the same time, Brent crude jumped about 3% to $116 per barrel, for the first time since March 19, and US stocks closed the week in the red.
On Friday, the USD/CAD pair fell below the psychological level of 1.4000 and traded around 1.3975 - a one-month low. This is the seventh consecutive losing session for the US dollar against the Canadian dollar, and the second week of decline in a row.
On Thursday Brent rose 2.6% to $111.66 per barrel - a five-month high, and in the evening Moscow time quotes went above $113. The rally was driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and expectations of a new military escalation around Iran.
