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The October US employment report (NFP) was released on November 6 and showed 165K new jobs against a forecast of 65K. The pound lost about 0.6% against the dollar and fell below the 1.3400 level.
The rate was raised by 25 basis points, from 3.75% to 4%, exactly as the market expected. In the minutes, the Bank of England stated directly: further increases will most likely be needed, because inflation could approach 5% by mid-2027.
The German statistics were released on Thursday at 10:00 Moscow time and came in weaker than consensus. EUR/USD rolled back from session highs to just below 1.1250, but the pair still ends the week in positive territory.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against six major currencies) is falling for the second day in a row and in Thursday's Asian session reached 101.20 - its lowest value in a month. Pressure comes from the results of the US midterm elections and a sharp drop in oil.
Consensus is 4.00% versus current 3.75% and a shift in the Committee vote from 3-0-6 to 7-0-2. GBP/USD approaches the decision at a seven-week high of 1.3485.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) headed toward the 101.00 area on Wednesday, November 4 - a five-week low - losing about 0.5% and falling below 101.50. On Thursday, two catalysts for movement hit the market at once: US labor market statistics and the Bank of England meeting.
On Monday, November 2, spot gold is trading around $3,906.39 per ounce - up $30.55 (+0.79%) from Friday's close of $3,875.84. The rebound follows Friday's plunge of nearly 3.5% to a one-year low. Reuters recorded $3,900.05 (+0.6%) at the start of the Asian session.
On Friday, October 30, spot gold closed around $3,875 per ounce: down 3.62% for the session and down 3.74% for the week. From the August level of roughly $4,700, the metal is now 18% lower.
From November 2 to 6, the market will get four reasons to move at once: the US midterm congressional elections, decisions from four central banks and the US employment report on Friday. The dollar enters this week after two weeks of decline and, for the first time in a long while, at its 200-week moving average.
On Friday the euro broke below the March 2025 levels against the British pound: the EUR/GBP pair touched 0.8336, a 19-month low. Strong eurozone economic data failed to convince the market, while the pound is rising on expectations that the Bank of England will raise rates as early as next week.
Today at 15:30 MSK UK Finance Minister John Healey presents his first annual budget, and at 21:00 MSK the Fed will announce its rate. GBP/USD is already at 1.3300 - the lowest since October 19.
On Monday, October 26, the dollar strengthened against major currencies ahead of the Fed meeting on Wednesday. The yen is the weakest in the basket, the pound slipped from its recent peak of 1.3419 to levels below 1.3350.
The preliminary business activity indices for October came in above forecasts across all three sectors, yet the pound barely gained against the dollar - but it pushed the euro to a 17-month low.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at 06:30 MSK at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and refused to give any hints on the rate. The dollar index DXY (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of six currencies) moved to 101.82, down 0.22% and a 10-day low.
The UK economy grew by 0.1% month-on-month in August, against a forecast of a 0.1% decline. After the data release, the pound strengthened, and GBP/USD rose by about 0.37%, to 1.3242.
US September inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year versus a forecast of 3.6%. After the release, the market sharply raised expectations for another Fed rate hike, the DXY dollar index rose to 102.84, and EUR/USD fell to a 17-month low.
On Wednesday, October 14 at 15:30 MSK, the US will publish September CPI. The market expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% year over year, while the monthly core reading, on the contrary, may slow to 0.2%.
Today, October 8, from 14:30 to 15:30 MSK, three important macro events come out in a row: the ECB protocols, a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and weekly US jobless claims. In one hour-long window, the euro, pound and dollar will be under reaction.
