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The Reserve Bank of Australia at 06:30 MSK raised the rate by 25 basis points, to 4.85% from 4.60%. This is the fifth hike since February and the highest rate level in 18 years, but the Australian dollar moved down, not up, on the decision.
WTI crude oil futures (the benchmark American grade, traded on the NYMEX exchange) lost 2.25% on Monday and slid to $99.80. This is a continuation of the correction after Friday's peak of $104.03 - a five-month high.
In October, China's economy slowed again: the manufacturing, services and composite business activity indices dropped into contraction territory. The composite indicator plunged from 50.7 to 49.3 - the worst combination in recent months.
From November 2 to 6, the market will get four reasons to move at once: the US midterm congressional elections, decisions from four central banks and the US employment report on Friday. The dollar enters this week after two weeks of decline and, for the first time in a long while, at its 200-week moving average.
September PCE (personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's key inflation gauge) accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year, while the US economy grew 3.4% in the third quarter - stronger than forecast. Buyers picked up the dollar, and the loonie gave up ground.
On the evening of October 28, the Fed left the rate at 3.75-4%, although US inflation is still above the 2% target. The decision was not unanimous: two votes went for a 0.25 percentage point hike - a rare picture that immediately pushed currencies in different directions.
The pair recovered from a drop to a monthly low around 156.00 and returned almost to 158.00 in a V-shaped move - the third consecutive rising session. The dollar is being pulled up ahead of the Fed decision, which will be released today at 21:00 Moscow time.
The Bank of Canada announces its rate decision midday, the Fed in the evening. USD/CAD is rising for a second day and has already bounced from 1.3970-1.3965, the low since September 16, climbing above 1.4000 - a new weekly high.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (the country's central bank) unexpectedly did not raise the key rate overnight on October 28, although almost everyone expected it to: the decision was made by a 4-3 vote. The New Zealand dollar moved lower in the first minutes after the publication.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) has fallen to a three-week low of around 101.50. Over the week, the dollar lost between 0.53% and 0.76% against each of the major currencies.
Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the inflation forecast looks worse than the bank's own calculations. AUD/USD rose about 0.45%, broke through the round 0.7000 level and reached 0.7017 - a two-week high and the fourth consecutive gain.
On Wednesday, October 14 at 15:30 MSK, the US will publish September CPI. The market expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% year over year, while the monthly core reading, on the contrary, may slow to 0.2%.
