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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at 06:30 MSK at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and refused to give any hints on the rate. The dollar index DXY (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of six currencies) moved to 101.82, down 0.22% and a 10-day low.
On Thursday, October 15, BTC dropped below $80,000, but recovered back to $82,300-82,500 in less than two hours. Over the day, $937.06 million worth of positions were forcibly closed on the crypto derivatives market.
One of the largest US brokers completed the rollout of spot BTC and ETH trading to retail clients and launched cryptocurrency transfers. By the end of the year, Solana, Avalanche, and Chainlink are promised to be added to the list.
The September report came out on October 15 at 15:31 MSK and turned out to be more than twice as strong as the forecast. But almost all of the growth came from gasoline and restaurants, while the part of the report key for GDP calculation fell short of the forecast.
On October 15 at about 16:54 MSK, BTC traded below $80,000 - a round level around which the bulk of the market's stop orders and leveraged positions are concentrated.
On October 15 at 15:30 Moscow time, the US released the producer price index for September (PPI - the prices at which factories and suppliers sell goods, that is, inflation at the input to the economy). The monthly increase was +1.3%: more than double expectations and triple August's +0.4%.
The DXY dollar index (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of major currencies) has lost over the course of a day the entire spike it got from the hot US inflation report, and by Thursday was down more than 0.50% for the day.
On October 14, US exchange-traded funds (ETFs - a fund through which an asset is bought like an ordinary stock) on Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana showed a total net outflow of about $171.5 million. A day earlier, the same funds took in $200.5 million.
US September inflation came in above forecast: 3.7% versus expected 3.6%. Today, October 15, the market will receive three more important data blocks - PPI, retail sales and weekly jobless claims.
The UK economy grew by 0.1% month-on-month in August, against a forecast of a 0.1% decline. After the data release, the pound strengthened, and GBP/USD rose by about 0.37%, to 1.3242.
Gold declined for three consecutive days after higher-than-expected US inflation was released and dropped to $4,065 per ounce. On the morning of October 15, XAU/USD recovered part of the decline and returned above $4,150 amid a pullback in the dollar and bond yields.
The US stock market fell sharply after higher inflation in the US. The Nasdaq Composite lost 1.9%, the S&P 500 - 1.1%, and the sell-off in AI- and chip-related stocks then spread to Asia, where the KOSPI plunged 8%.
Over the past 24 hours, leveraged positions worth $951.4 million were liquidated on the crypto market, with $876.3 million coming from longs. Bitcoin dropped to $80,764, while Ethereum lost more than 6%.
US September inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year versus a forecast of 3.6%. After the release, the market sharply raised expectations for another Fed rate hike, the DXY dollar index rose to 102.84, and EUR/USD fell to a 17-month low.
US September CPI came in above expectations: 3.7% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.6%, while core inflation accelerated to 2.6%. The market quickly raised the probability of another Fed move, and Bitcoin fell below $83,000 in five minutes.
EUR/GBP fell to 0.8442, the lowest level since June 2025. In less than three weeks, the pair lost about 1.92%, which is a notable move for an usually calm cross rate.
Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the ECB Governing Council, said that at the next meeting the regulator will most likely raise the rate. For the market, this is an important signal, since expectations of a tighter policy directly affect the euro and asset yields in the eurozone.
At the Bank of Japan, they are leaning toward leaving the rate unchanged at the October 30 meeting. Against this backdrop, the probability of an October hike has fallen to about 10%, and USD/JPY is holding near 158.50, close to monthly highs.
WTI crude oil is rising for the fifth consecutive session and has climbed above $94 per barrel after new attacks in Saudi Arabia. The market is again pricing in heightened risk of supply disruptions in the Middle East, despite rising OPEC+ production.
Today at 15:30 MSK, the US consumer inflation report for September will be released. Headline CPI is expected at 3.6% year-on-year versus 3.4% in August, with gasoline prices potentially making the main contribution to the acceleration.
Wallets linked to US authorities transferred about 17,733 BTC to Coinbase Prime. The bulk of the coins were likely moved for custody rather than for immediate sale on the market.
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Last week, Strive increased its Bitcoin reserves by another 3,311 BTC. The purchase became part of a corporate strategy of holding BTC on the balance sheet as a long-term reserve asset.
