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Washington pressures Tokyo: the dollar-yen rate must fall, Japan is no longer in deflation

On October 16, the U.S. Treasury publicly stated that Japan is no longer living in deflation, which means the yen exchange rate must reflect this. This is a repeated call for Tokyo to strengthen the JPY against the USD.

Washington pressures Tokyo: the dollar-yen rate must fall, Japan is no longer in deflation

What matters in 30 seconds

30 SEC
  • 01

    On October 16, the U.S. Treasury publicly stated that Japan is no longer living in deflation, which means the yen exchange rate must reflect this.

  • 02

    "Japan is no longer in a deflationary environment, the yen's level must change."

  • 03

    A weak yen makes Japanese exports cheaper in foreign markets, and the U.S. has for years considered this an unfair advantage.

  • 04

    For a trader, this is verbal intervention - an attempt to move the exchange rate through a statement, without actual currency purchases in the market.

  • 05

    Real intervention, if Tokyo goes for it, usually comes without warning.

Hard wording: "Japan is no longer in a deflationary environment, the yen's level must change." Washington's argument is that inflation has started rising in Japan, while the currency remains weak.

Why this is being discussed at all. A weak yen makes Japanese exports cheaper in foreign markets, and the US has for years considered this an unfair advantage. As long as deflation persisted in Japan, Tokyo had a justifying argument: ultra-loose policy and a cheap currency are needed to drive up prices. Now inflation exists, and the argument falls apart.

For a trader, this is verbal intervention - an attempt to move the exchange rate through a statement, without actual currency purchases in the market. On USD/JPY, such phrases work as a standalone trigger: the pair reacts to rhetoric from US and Japanese officials no less than to statistics.

What's next. The statement changes neither rates nor rules - it's pressure within the US-Japan dialogue on the exchange rate. But it means the yen topic is back on the active agenda, which means any next comment on the subject can add volatility to USD/JPY and yen cross-rates. A real intervention, if Tokyo goes for it, usually comes without warning.

Were you holding USD/JPY when such a headline hit?

Statements on the yen come without a schedule, and the pair lurches when you're already in a position. At prop firms, this is the most varied part of the rulebook: in some places, holding a trade overnight and trading on officials' rhetoric is fine, in others, slippage on such a spike will be counted as a limit breach. You need to check the daily loss calculation, permission to trade on news, and the list of available pairs. A filter by parameters will leave only those programs where your style is allowed.

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Source: MarketTwits0 views
Washington pressures Tokyo: the dollar-yen rate must fall, Japan is no longer in deflation | PropMarketCap