On Thursday, October 8, the Nasdaq 100 lost more than 300 points in about 30 minutes. An additional trigger for the sell-off was new data on OpenAI's revenue. The market received an estimate noticeably different from the figure that was being discussed several weeks earlier.
What changed in OpenAI's revenue estimate
In late September, an estimate circulated in the market according to which OpenAI's annual revenue run rate had reached approximately $70 billion. Now investors have received a different figure. At the end of September, the metric was estimated closer to $50 billion. An annual revenue run rate does not mean the amount actually received over the year. It is a projection of the current sales level onto the next 12 months.
Why the figures differ
One of the reasons for the discrepancy was the revenue accounting methodology. Different companies may account differently for sales that go through cloud partners and third-party platforms. For example, AI developers may have different approaches to accounting for sales through major cloud services. Because of this, a direct comparison of different companies' metrics is not always correct without taking methodology into account.
What is known about OpenAI's growth
Despite the lower annual run-rate estimate, OpenAI told investors that revenue grew by more than 70%. For all of 2025, the company's audited revenue was about $13.07 billion. So this is not about a decline in the business, but about a reassessment of its current growth rate. For the market, the difference between expectations and the new figure matters.
Nasdaq was falling even before the news
The technology sector was under pressure even before the new OpenAI data appeared. Nasdaq 100 futures were down about 0.5% in the morning. The yield on 30-year US Treasuries was near its highest levels in more than two decades. High yields are especially sensitive for technology companies, whose valuations largely depend on expectations of future profit.
Oil added pressure
Oil was an additional factor. Brent rose above $100 per barrel amid risks of supply disruptions from the Middle East. Expensive oil intensifies inflation concerns and supports the scenario of a longer period of high rates. For tech stocks, this is another negative factor.
The market is also watching AI debt
Financing of artificial intelligence infrastructure is drawing particular attention. Broadcom is seeking more than $50 billion in financing to develop its own chip jointly with OpenAI. This intensifies the debate about how quickly AI infrastructure spending is growing and whether future revenue can justify the scale of the investment.
Why OpenAI's revenue matters for the entire Nasdaq
OpenAI itself is not part of the Nasdaq 100 as a public company. But its metrics are used by the market as a benchmark for real demand for artificial intelligence products. Expectations for chipmakers, cloud companies, data centers and infrastructure suppliers depend on that demand. Therefore, a change in the revenue estimate of one large AI company can affect the entire technology sector at once.
What's next
The market will be watching new data on OpenAI, Anthropic and other major AI developers especially closely. The main question is whether revenue growth matches the large-scale investments currently being directed into infrastructure. If expectations for AI monetization decline, pressure on technology company valuations could intensify. If revenue continues to grow rapidly, the sector will gain an argument for maintaining high valuations.
Were you in US100 when that figure came in?
A move of more than 300 points in half an hour shows how sharply the technology index can react to corporate news. When trading through a prop firm, not only the direction and entry point matter, but also the program rules. US100 may not be available in all programs, and the daily drawdown, floating loss, leverage and trading rules during sharp moves may differ. These conditions are best checked before buying a challenge.