Iran reported another strike on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the IRGC, this is already the third such incident in two days. At the same time, only some of the reports have been independently confirmed, but the oil market still reacted quickly with a rise.
What Iran stated
The IRGC reported that on the morning of October 12, another tanker was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. According to the Iranian side, a fire broke out on board. The name of the vessel, flag, operator and method of attack were not specified. Iran also stated that it would respond to the actions of commercial vessels that, according to its version, cooperate with US military forces in the region.
What has been confirmed
One strike on a tanker on October 11 has been independently confirmed. The vessel sustained damage to its port side, and the crew was not injured. There were also reports of two more vessels that came under attack on the same day. On one of them, all the sailors on board survived. On the other, two crew members are listed as missing. At the same time, there is still no confirmation of exactly three supertankers being hit.
How oil reacted
Brent rose on Monday to $106.80 per barrel. The next day, the price rolled back to about $105. This shows that the market is reacting primarily to the risk of future disruptions, rather than to an already confirmed loss of large volumes of oil.
Why the Strait of Hormuz is so important
The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the key routes for oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Any threats to shipping quickly affect the cost of raw materials and logistics. This is especially noticeable in freight rates. The cost of transportation on the US coast - China route for VLCC supertankers previously rose above $637,000 per day.
What is happening with exports
Oil exports from the Gulf countries are gradually recovering. In September, they returned to approximately 81% of the pre-war level. For crude oil and condensate, the figure was about 91%. For petroleum products, the recovery was weaker - about 60%. This means that supplies are continuing, but the market is still pricing in a high risk of new disruptions.
Why oil reacts so sharply to statements
Right now, quotes are sensitive to any reports from the region. Even unconfirmed statements can quickly raise the risk premium. If the news is not confirmed, part of the move rolls back just as quickly. Therefore, oil remains in a regime of high volatility.
What's next
The main factor remains the safety of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. If new attacks and real supply disruptions are confirmed, pressure on Brent may intensify. If the statements remain unconfirmed, the market may continue to roll back part of the geopolitical premium. For now, the number of statements is growing faster than the number of confirmed incidents, and oil will react sharply to every new headline.
Were you in oil when this news came out?
Brent and WTI can move by several dollars in a short time because of just one report. For a prop trader, the rules of the specific program are especially important here. Oil is not available in all prop firms, and the conditions for leverage, holding positions over the weekend and daily drawdown calculation can differ greatly. These parameters are best checked in advance.