Bitcoin's price has come almost right up to the average purchase price of recent coin holders. The CryptoQuant platform calculated: on November 1, this average was $77,140, while BTC itself was worth $77,880. The difference is $740, less than 1%.
What this average is. This refers to the "trader realized price" metric. This is the average price at which relatively new market participants accumulated their BTC. The calculation takes coins that last moved on the blockchain 1-3 months ago.
Why this matters to a trader. This line has historically acted as support during growth phases. Whether the correction remains technical depends on how the market reacts to this zone.
Who calculated what?
The analysis was published by a CryptoQuant analyst under the handle Trdaer_Gemini. According to his data, since 2019, during growth phases, this line has repeatedly acted as support when the price pulled back to it.
- $77,140 - average purchase price of new holders on November 1
- $77,880 - BTC price at the same moment
- $740 - the entire buffer to the breakeven point of recent buyers
Why does the level work at all?
The logic is simple. As long as the price is above, recent buyers are on average in profit and hold their coins.
- Price above the average. New holders are in profit, there's no reason to sell, the zone holds the market.
- Price went below and didn't return. The same zone now acts as resistance.
- Exit at a loss. Those who end up in the red use every return to their purchase price to close out.
An important detail. The metric grew steadily while Bitcoin itself was correcting. The gap between it and the price has narrowed to almost zero.
Key point: the analyst specifically emphasizes that $77,100 is not a level for automatic buying, but a place where it will become clear whether the market can absorb the selling.
What about US demand?
US demand is still weak. The Coinbase premium index fell to -0.27% on October 29.
This is the difference between the BTC price on the US exchange and on Binance. A discount this deep hasn't been seen since the collapse of the FTX exchange in November 2022.
- -0.27% - index value on October 29
- November 2022 - the last time the discount was this deep
What's next?
There's another view. A trader under the handle Ardi calls the $76,500-$81,800 range an accumulation zone and doesn't expect a return to $70,000. This is a private opinion, not a forecast.
In practice, whether the correction remains technical or turns into pressure on the market for the coming weeks depends on the reaction to $77,100. It's convenient to keep the dates of key market events close at hand in the economic calendar.
Watching this zone in the order book?
A level like $77,100 is kept in mind in advance. Orders are placed, a stop below the zone, the plan is ready. And then the level plays out, and it turns out that with a couple thousand on deposit, precise work on the chart brings in tens of dollars. The sticking point here is the position's notional size, not the quality of the markup. In prop trading, notional size stops being your limitation: you pay for selection, trade the company's account within its limits, and share the result. The mechanics are worth understanding before the next test of such a zone.