Glassnode named the reason Bitcoin's growth is hitting a ceiling: too many coins were bought above the market price. Long-term holders accumulated about 4 million BTC in the $85,000-$118,000 range, mostly in 2025.
A long-term holder is someone who hasn't moved coins for more than 155 days. At the current price, their holdings are worth about $326 billion, and more than half of these coins are at a loss.
For a trader, this explains the price behavior. The $85,000 level has already reversed the market downward four times this year.
Where is the ceiling?
Above $85,000, Bitcoin barely lives. It has closed there only five days since January. The last attempt was in September with a peak of $87,100.
- $81,400-81,600 - current trading range
- plus about 1.2% - movement over the day
- roughly 35% - lag from the all-time high of $126,080
Why are fund holders in the red?
The price is sitting exactly at their break-even level. This refers to US exchange-traded funds on Bitcoin. These are funds through which the asset is bought like an ordinary stock.
- $81,500 - average purchase price according to Glassnode calculations
- just below $82,000 - James Seyffart's estimate from Bloomberg Intelligence
- $2.63 billion - unrealized loss of these holders as of Monday
Who is buying and who is exiting?
Flows have diverged. Major players in the funds are acting in different directions.
- Inflows have returned. From Monday to Wednesday, the funds collected about $424 million - after an outflow of $635 million on October 22.
- Some institutions have left. Galaxy Research counted nine hedge funds and banks that cut 68,000 BTC in positions in these funds.
- Demand from the other side. Sovereign funds and private banks were buying during this time.
What's next?
The macro backdrop isn't helping. The Fed on Wednesday left the rate at 3.75-4.00% with a 10-2 vote. Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack were in favor of a hike.
- above 70% - market-estimated odds of a quarter-point hike in December; see the date in the economic calendar
- $42 million - buy orders on Binance between $78,000 and $79,000 according to Glassnode
- $75,800 - average entry price of new buyers
- $75,000-85,000 - the range Tim Sun of HashKey is waiting for until sustained inflows into the funds return
Key point: until Bitcoin consolidates above $85,000, you have to work within the corridor, not in a trend. For such a market, it's worth picking a challenge on crypto in advance.
Trading this range?
When the market moves between $75,000 and $85,000 for months, you don't make money by guessing direction. You make money through discipline within the corridor. And here it turns out that prop firms handle crypto differently: some have leverage on BTC cut, some have altcoins off the list, and the daily loss is calculated from the morning balance, not from the account peak. Such details decide whether you make it to payout or get knocked out on an ordinary pullback. Break them down by program while the range hasn't been broken yet.