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Preliminary eurozone inflation for September accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year versus a forecast of 3.7% and 3.2% a month earlier. The core measure rose to 2.5%, which strengthens the arguments against a rapid easing of ECB policy.
September Tokyo inflation came in above forecast across all key measures. Core CPI accelerated to 2.7%, while the measure excluding food and energy reached 3.0%. The yen responded with strengthening, and USD/JPY dropped below 158.00.
US President Donald Trump said that in the absence of an acceptable agreement, Washington may resume or intensify strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. The conflict has been ongoing for about seven months, and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the key risks for the oil market.
Gold first rose to $4,220 after soft US inflation data, but then completely erased its gains and fell to $4,139-4,150. Pressure was intensified by rising US Treasury yields, a strong dollar and more hawkish rate expectations
US Core PCE for August slowed to 3.0% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.3%. After the release, the dollar and government bond yields declined, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in October decreased.
Today, September 30, at 15:30 MSK, the US releases Core PCE. The forecast is 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier. The indicator is important for assessing the further trajectory of the Fed rate.
