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On Friday morning, three signals at once from the Bank of Japan in favor of a further rate hike supported the yen, and the USD/JPY pair slid to 157.85. The regulator's next meeting is on October 29-30.
On October 16, the calendar has four reasons for movement at once: inflation in the European Union, US industrial statistics, the fifth day of the annual IMF and World Bank meeting with central bank heads participating, and a morning speech by Fed Chair Warsh.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at 06:30 MSK at the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok and refused to give any hints on the rate. The dollar index DXY (the dollar's exchange rate against a basket of six currencies) moved to 101.82, down 0.22% and a 10-day low.
Gold declined for three consecutive days after higher-than-expected US inflation was released and dropped to $4,065 per ounce. On the morning of October 15, XAU/USD recovered part of the decline and returned above $4,150 amid a pullback in the dollar and bond yields.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation is high. In her view, the Fed needs to continue tightening monetary policy, although the pace of rate hikes may be adjusted.
On Wednesday, October 14 at 15:30 MSK, the US will publish September CPI. The market expects headline inflation to accelerate to 3.6% year over year, while the monthly core reading, on the contrary, may slow to 0.2%.
Gold declined after the publication of the minutes of the September Fed meeting. XAU/USD briefly dropped to $4,066, the lowest level in about two months, amid a stronger dollar and rising US bond yields.
The September New York Fed survey showed Americans' one-year-ahead inflation expectations rising to 3.9% versus 3.6% a month earlier. This is the highest reading since May 2023 and another argument for the Fed to remain cautious with rates.
XAU/USD rose to $4,227 on Friday but failed to consolidate above $4,200 and pulled back to $4,138. That is about a 1% decline for the day, despite a weak US labor market report.
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lori Logan said the Fed rate needs to be raised by at least another 50 basis points so that monetary policy becomes moderately restrictive and helps bring inflation back to the 2% target.
