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US President Donald Trump said that in the absence of an acceptable agreement, Washington may resume or intensify strikes on Iran after the midterm elections. The conflict has been ongoing for about seven months, and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the key risks for the oil market.
USD/JPY rose to 158.44, and the yen lost about 0.5% after the release of the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions. The market saw no signal in the document for a rate hike as early as October, and the absence of currency interventions further increased pressure on the yen.
EUR/USD falls for the fourth day in a row and has reached 1.1265, the lowest level since May 2025. Over four weeks, the euro has lost about 2.8% against the dollar amid a strong dollar, rising US yields and French debt risks.
The USD/CHF pair rose to 0.8367 on the morning of October 1, a 16-month high, and has been rising for the seventh consecutive trading session. Pressure on the franc was intensified by weak investor expectations for the Swiss economy and the SNB's dovish stance.
Gold first rose to $4,220 after soft US inflation data, but then completely erased its gains and fell to $4,139-4,150. Pressure was intensified by rising US Treasury yields, a strong dollar and more hawkish rate expectations
After softer inflation data, the market sharply lowered expectations for a Fed rate hike in October. The probability of such a decision dropped to about 35-37%, whereas at the beginning of the week it exceeded 70%
US Core PCE for August slowed to 3.0% year-over-year versus a forecast of 3.3%. After the release, the dollar and government bond yields declined, while the probability of a Fed rate hike in October decreased.
Robinhood has begun rolling out perpetual crypto futures trading for clients in the US. At launch, 8 assets are available, leverage up to 10x, settlement every 15 minutes, and a 0.01% fee per trade until the end of the year.
Today, September 30, at 15:30 MSK, the US releases Core PCE. The forecast is 0.3% versus 0.2% a month earlier. The indicator is important for assessing the further trajectory of the Fed rate.
In August, the number of job openings in the US declined to 7.079 million versus the expected 7.225-7.230 million. At the same time, hires and layoffs remained nearly unchanged.
