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Pierre Wunsch, Governor of the National Bank of Belgium and member of the ECB Governing Council, said that at the next meeting the regulator will most likely raise the rate. For the market, this is an important signal, since expectations of a tighter policy directly affect the euro and asset yields in the eurozone.
At the Bank of Japan, they are leaning toward leaving the rate unchanged at the October 30 meeting. Against this backdrop, the probability of an October hike has fallen to about 10%, and USD/JPY is holding near 158.50, close to monthly highs.
Today at 15:30 MSK, the US consumer inflation report for September will be released. Headline CPI is expected at 3.6% year-on-year versus 3.4% in August, with gasoline prices potentially making the main contribution to the acceleration.
Iran announced a strike on a third supertanker in the Strait of Hormuz in two days. Only one incident has been independently confirmed, but Brent crude rose to $106.80 amid new risks per
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation is high. In her view, the Fed needs to continue tightening monetary policy, although the pace of rate hikes may be adjusted.
On October 12, gold lost 1.49% and dropped from $4,217 to $4,163 per ounce. Pressure came from rising oil, a stronger dollar, and high US bond yields.
On October 12, Bitcoin rose to $84,254, its highest since last Wednesday, but then lost about 2.2% from its peak and returned to $82,500. Pressure came from the oil market: WTI rose above $94, and Brent - to $107.25.
The DXY dollar index broke through 102.50 and reached its highest level since April 2025. Since the September low, the index has gained about 4% and is heading for a fourth consecutive rising week amid demand for safe-haven assets and a new wave of geopolitical tensions.
The Brent spot price has diverged noticeably between regions: in Europe, oil is trading around $125.5 per barrel, while in Asia it exceeds $150. This gap points primarily to problems with physical delivery and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI is losing about 1.5% on Monday morning and trading around $90 per barrel, breaking a two-day rally. The pressure came after Donald Trump's statement about a possible halt to Russian and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, while the details of the agreement have not yet been confirmed by both sides.
