On Tuesday, October 20, Tesla closed at $373.71 (+1.54%), and in after-hours trading added another 1.76% - to $380.29. The company's market cap is $1.48 trillion.
What Musk said verbatim: "Both companies have formed special committees to discuss this idea at the request of shareholders." The committees include independent directors, Musk himself is excluded as an interested party, and the terms of the deal have not been agreed upon. Approval will require votes from holders of 50% of all outstanding shares of Tesla - a threshold Musk called "quite high." According to Barclays, plans could be announced before the end of December, the buyer will more likely be SpaceX, and the consideration will be in shares.
A separate story is the quarterly report. Tesla publishes its third-quarter results today after the close of the US session, with the management call at 00:30 Moscow time. Consensus: earnings per share of $0.45 on revenue of $28.06 billion versus $0.50 and $28.1 billion a year earlier. Deliveries are already known: 486,532 vehicles, 2.1% below last year's record but above the expected 461,974. Energy storage came in at 13.7 GWh versus a forecast of about 15.9 GWh.
The options market is pricing in a move of 6-7.5% in either direction, which is $22-27 per share. The average move after the last four reports was 5.95%, and after three of them the stock fell, in July by 14.52%. The nearest reference points: $347 on the downside and $400 on the upside.
Seven percent overnight - and how much is that for you?
Everyone who trades US stocks is watching for Tesla's report. But $25 of movement per share only becomes money when you have volume in your position, not three shares. On a personal account, such a sleepless night ends with a sum that wasn't worth staying up for. In prop trading, the trading notional is provided by the company: first a challenge, then its account and its risk limits. It makes more sense to understand the mechanics before the next earnings season, not in the minute of the release.